证券研究报告·公司点评报告·消费 H&H 国际控股（1112.HK） [Table_Main] 2025 年半年报业绩点评：业绩符合此前预告；合生元 市场份额持续提升 买入（维持） | 盈利预测与估值 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入总额（百万港元） | 13,051.7 | 14,367.9 | 15,492.4 | 16,438.1 | | 同比 | -6.3% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 6.1% | | 归母净利润（百万港元） | -53.7 | 676.0 | 845.5 | 952.9 | | 同比 | - | - | 25.1% | 12.7% | | 每股收益-最新股本摊薄（港元/股） | 9.01 | 9.79 | 10.77 | 11.88 | | P/E - 现价 | - | 13.27 | 10.61 | 9.42 | | 数据来源：iFind，东吴证券（香港） | | | | | 投资要点 [Table_Author] 2025 年 8 月 28 日 分析师 张景之 (8 ...

Group 1: IPO Overview - This week, three companies submitted their IPO applications: Junsheng Electronics, Haijing Zhiyuan, and Haixi New Drug [2][3] - Next week, Yinnuo Pharmaceutical-B (weight loss drug) and Zhonghui Biotechnology-B (vaccine) are expected to be listed, presenting potential investment opportunities [1][2] Group 2: Company Profiles - **Junsheng Electronics**: A leading provider of smart automotive technology solutions, ranked 41st globally in the automotive parts industry in 2024. The company is the second-largest supplier of passive safety products in China and globally, with 74.7% of its revenue from overseas sales in 2024 [3] - **Haijing Zhiyuan Technology**: A leading Chinese multispectral AI technology company, with revenues of approximately CNY 224.7 million, CNY 117.1 million, and CNY 522.6 million for the fiscal years 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of about 52.5% [4] - **Haixi New Drug**: A commercial-stage pharmaceutical company with a diverse product portfolio in the fastest-growing therapeutic areas in China. The company focuses on innovative drugs with significant global market potential, including a potential first-in-class oncology drug [5][6] Group 3: Upcoming Listings - **Yinnuo Pharmaceutical-B**: The first in Asia and third globally to advance a novel GLP-1 receptor agonist to the registration approval stage, with an expected IPO fundraising of HKD 683 million at a price of HKD 18.68 per share [9][10] - **Zhonghui Biotechnology-B**: A vaccine company focused on innovative vaccines and traditional vaccines using new technologies, with an expected IPO fundraising of HKD 518 million at a price range of HKD 12.90 to HKD 15.50 per share [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the market in the next six months [4]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the emerging market hygiene products sector, with a strong market share in Africa. In 2023, it held the top position in the African market for baby diapers and sanitary napkins, with market shares of 20.0% and 14.0% respectively [7][10]. - Revenue has been consistently growing, with a 28.6% year-on-year increase in 2023, driven by an expanded sales network and optimized product mix. However, growth slowed to 7.2% in the first three quarters of 2024 due to a decline in product prices [7][20]. - The emerging markets for baby and female hygiene products show significant growth potential, with Africa's newborn population growing at a CAGR of 1.5% from 2019 to 2023, and low market penetration rates for hygiene products [7][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, established in 2009, became independent in 2022 and focuses on hygiene products for emerging markets, particularly in Africa, Latin America, and Central Asia. It has a strong presence in the African market [7][10]. 2. Revenue Growth - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of $410 million, a 28.6% increase year-on-year. The growth was attributed to market expansion and product optimization. However, revenue growth slowed to 7.2% in the first three quarters of 2024 due to a 6-11% decline in product prices [20][21]. 3. Market Potential - The company operates in a market with significant growth potential, particularly in Africa, where the penetration rates for baby diapers and sanitary napkins are low compared to developed markets. The CAGR for the African baby diaper market is projected at 8.0% from 2023 to 2028 [38][39]. 4. Product Portfolio - The company has a diverse brand matrix, with its flagship brand, Softcare, contributing significantly to revenue. The average price of its products is approximately 70-80% of that of leading international brands [14][21]. 5. Cost Structure and Profitability - The company's gross margin improved significantly from 23.0% in 2022 to 34.9% in 2023, primarily due to a decrease in raw material costs. The net profit margin also increased to 21.6% in the first three quarters of 2024 [29][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group [2][7] Core Views - Baidu's core advertising business is expected to face pressure due to AI search transformations, with a projected revenue decline of 16.3% year-on-year in Q2 2025 [7] - Baidu's Robotaxi service, "Luobo Kuaipao," is leading the global market, with a significant increase in order volume, up 75% year-on-year to 1.44 million in Q1 2025 [7] - The company's intelligent cloud business is experiencing rapid growth driven by the demand for generative AI and large language models, with Q1 2025 cloud service revenue expected to grow by 42% year-on-year [7] - The overall revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to reflect a decline of 5.2% in 2025, followed by growth of 4.4% and 4.8% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [7] - The target price for Baidu has been revised down to HKD 95.15 based on DCF valuation [7] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Baidu are as follows: - 2024: 133,125 million CNY - 2025: 126,265 million CNY - 2026: 131,853 million CNY - 2027: 138,172 million CNY [2][12] - Net profit projections are: - 2024: 23,760 million CNY - 2025: 18,324 million CNY - 2026: 20,200 million CNY - 2027: 22,172 million CNY [2][12] - The P/E ratio is projected to be 10.9 in 2024, increasing to 14.1 in 2025, and then decreasing to 11.7 by 2027 [2][12] Business Segments - The core online marketing service revenue is expected to decline by 15.3% in 2025, while cloud service revenue is projected to grow by 22.2% [8] - The iQIYI segment is expected to see a slight revenue decline of 1.0% in 2025 [8] Valuation Metrics - The report provides a DCF valuation breakdown, indicating a total enterprise value of approximately 370.45 billion CNY, with equity value at 287.44 billion CNY [9][10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not explicitly stated in the provided content Core Insights - 2025 is identified as the year of Agent applications in China, with generative AI transitioning to Agentic AI, emphasizing deep thinking, multimodal understanding, and tool invocation as core evolution directions [2][12] - The Doubao model 1.6 series has significantly enhanced capabilities, supporting "thinking while searching" and Deep Research, improving complex reasoning and information retrieval efficiency [2][12] - Seedance 1.0 Pro has achieved global leadership in text-to-video and image-to-video categories, with significant advancements in video generation quality and efficiency [3][16][18] - The Doubao model 1.6 has reduced overall costs by 63%, with a unified pricing model that enhances its competitive edge [11][12] Summary by Sections AI Model Developments - The Doubao model 1.6 series supports multimodal capabilities, 256K long context, and deep thinking abilities, with specific models enhancing various functionalities [11][12] - The Seedance 1.0 Pro model generates high-quality 1080P videos with seamless transitions and industry-leading motion stability, achieving significant breakthroughs in video generation [3][16][18] Market Performance - Doubao model daily token usage reached 16.4 trillion, maintaining a 46.4% market share in China's public cloud sector, with substantial growth in AI tools and interactive entertainment [8] - The model's applications extend into various industries, including e-commerce, automotive, and finance, demonstrating a comprehensive ecosystem from developer engagement to vertical industry solutions [8][12] Technological Innovations - The conference highlighted advancements in AI cloud-native capabilities, including the launch of AICC secure computing and multimodal data lakes, enhancing the AI development toolchain [6][7] - The integration of AI with IoT technologies was showcased, indicating a path for deeper industry collaboration and innovation [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Home Depot (HD.N) is maintained at "Neutral" [6][20]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with comparable sales down 0.3% year-over-year. Revenue increased by 9.4% to $39.86 billion, primarily due to the acquisition of SRS, while net profit decreased by 4.6% to $3.43 billion [6]. - The company maintains guidance for a comparable sales growth of approximately 1% for 2025, with plans to open about 13 new stores [6]. - Despite a challenging high-interest-rate environment affecting the housing market, Home Depot's operational data showed improvement, with customer transactions up 2.1% year-over-year [6]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Home Depot are as follows: - 2024A: $159.514 billion - 2025E: $163.502 billion (growth of 2.5%) - 2026E: $167.099 billion (growth of 2.2%) - 2027E: $175.153 billion (growth of 4.8%) [6][12]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024A: $14.806 billion - 2025E: $14.284 billion (decline of 3.5%) - 2026E: $14.855 billion (growth of 4.0%) - 2027E: $15.500 billion (growth of 4.3%) [6][12]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are: - 2024A: $14.90 - 2025E: $14.37 - 2026E: $14.95 - 2027E: $15.59 [6][12]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected as follows: - 2024A: 24.89 - 2025E: 25.80 - 2026E: 24.81 - 2027E: 23.78 [6][12]. - The target price for Home Depot is set at $371.89, based on discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Costco is maintained at "Neutral" [1][3]. Core Views - Costco's revenue for FY25 Q2 increased by 9.1% year-on-year to $62.5 billion, with net profit rising by 2.6% to $1.79 billion, and diluted EPS also up by 2.6% to $4.02 per share [3]. - Membership income grew by 7.4% year-on-year, with a global renewal rate of 90.5% and a membership count of 78.4 million, of which 36.9 million are premium members [3]. - E-commerce comparable sales surged by 20.9% year-on-year, driven by a 13% increase in website traffic and a 10% rise in average order value [3]. - The company plans to open 18 new warehouse stores globally in FY2025, increasing the total to 915 stores by the end of the fiscal year [3]. - Potential tariff issues may pressure the company's cost structure, as approximately one-third of products sold in the U.S. are imported, with nearly half sourced from China, Mexico, and Canada [3]. - Revenue projections for FY2025-2027 are expected to grow by 5.60%, 6.75%, and 5.60% respectively, with net profit growth of 8.30%, 3.77%, and 13.32% [3][4]. Financial Summary - FY2024 projected revenue is $254.453 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.02% [1]. - FY2025 projected revenue is $268.702 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.60% [1]. - FY2026 projected revenue is $286.840 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.75% [1]. - FY2027 projected revenue is $302.903 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.60% [1]. - FY2024 projected net profit is $7.367 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 17.09% [1]. - FY2025 projected net profit is $7.978 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 8.30% [1]. - FY2026 projected net profit is $8.279 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.77% [1]. - FY2027 projected net profit is $9.382 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 13.32% [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Costco is maintained at "Neutral" [1][3]. Core Insights - Costco's revenue for FY25 Q2 increased by 9.1% year-on-year to $62.5 billion, with net profit rising by 2.6% to $1.79 billion and diluted EPS also up by 2.6% to $4.02 per share [3]. - Membership revenue grew by 7.4% year-on-year, with a global renewal rate of 90.5% and a membership count of 78.4 million, of which 36.9 million are premium members [3]. - E-commerce comparable sales surged by 20.9% year-on-year, driven by a 13% increase in website traffic and a 10% rise in average transaction value [3]. - The company plans to open 18 new warehouse stores globally in FY2025, increasing its total to 915 stores by the end of the fiscal year [3]. - Potential tariff issues may pressure the company's cost structure, as approximately one-third of its products sold in the U.S. are imported, with nearly half sourced from China, Mexico, and Canada [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY2025-2027 are $268.7 billion, $286.8 billion, and $302.9 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5.60%, 6.75%, and 5.60% respectively [1][3]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are $7.98 billion, $8.28 billion, and $9.38 billion, with growth rates of 8.30%, 3.77%, and 13.32% respectively [1][3]. - The projected P/E ratios for FY2025-2027 are 51.97, 50.08, and 44.20 [1][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2024 met expectations, with a net revenue of HKD 7.47 billion, recovering to 87.2% of Q4 2019 levels. The gaming and non-gaming net revenues were HKD 6.95 billion and HKD 0.52 billion, respectively, recovering to 83.0% and 285.0% of the same period in 2019 [6] - The adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 was HKD 0.99 billion, aligning closely with market expectations of HKD 1.02 billion, and recovering to 83.8% of Q4 2019 levels [6] - The company is focused on upgrading its properties, with a target market share of 5% for its flagship property, and has implemented several strategies to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience [6] - The company does not express concern over satellite casinos potentially ceasing operations, as it believes it can effectively utilize its own gaming tables and staff to maintain performance [6] - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is maintained at HKD 28.92 billion, HKD 31.41 billion, and HKD 33.52 billion, respectively, with adjusted property EBITDA forecasts of HKD 3.79 billion, HKD 4.71 billion, and HKD 5.43 billion [6] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are HKD 21,623.2 million, HKD 28,921.2 million, HKD 31,408.8 million, and HKD 33,521.4 million, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 223.8%, 33.8%, 8.6%, and 6.7% [6][7] - Adjusted property EBITDA for the same years is projected at HKD 1,928.0 million, HKD 3,786.5 million, HKD 4,712.1 million, and HKD 5,427.4 million, with growth rates of 96.4%, 24.4%, and 15.2% for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E [6][7] - The diluted earnings per share are forecasted to be HKD -0.28, HKD 0.03, HKD 0.18, and HKD 0.31 for 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][6] Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2024 was below expectations, with adjusted property EBITDA margin declining by 3.6 percentage points. The net revenue for Q4 2024 was $1.19 billion, aligning with market expectations, and the overall recovery to 76.5% of Q4 2019 levels [6] - The company anticipates a gradual decrease in average daily operating expenses to $3 million in 1H25, following a peak of $3.2 million in Q4 2024 due to increased promotional activities and employee compensation [6] - The company expects to maintain its market share and has seen a 17% year-on-year increase in property foot traffic during the Chinese New Year period [6] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company forecasts total revenue of HKD 36.62 billion for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 24%. Adjusted property EBITDA is projected at HKD 9.47 billion, reflecting a 26.2% increase [1][7] - The current stock price corresponds to EV/Adjusted EBITDA multiples of 7.2, 6.0, and 5.5 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6][7] - The target price is set at HKD 6.6, with net income forecasts of HKD 36.62 billion, HKD 40.24 billion, and HKD 42.52 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 [6][7]