公用事业深度分析：海外能源启示录之美国市场-电能市场弱化周期，辅助服务增收稳盈

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for the industry, consistent with the previous rating [1] Core Views - Power Generation Business: Profitability is decoupled from fuel cycles, with supply and demand determining profit margins. Natural gas power generation has rapidly replaced coal, accounting for 43% of total power generation by 2022, while renewable energy (wind and solar) has grown to 14% [1] - Ancillary Services: High penetration of renewable energy has increased the demand for ancillary services, leading to a doubling of backup and frequency regulation revenues. For example, in the CAISO market, backup and frequency regulation revenues have stabilized at around 0.1 cents per kWh [1] - China Market Implications: The reform of the power sector is expected to create a nearly 400 billion RMB market for ancillary services by 2030, with a focus on regions with high renewable energy penetration and large-capacity power units [1] Detailed Summary by Sections Power Generation Business - US Power Market Reform: The US power market has shifted from economic efficiency to reliability, with the establishment of 10 major regional power markets, including PJM and CAISO. Natural gas has become the dominant power source, replacing coal, while renewable energy has steadily grown [1][10][11] - PJM Market Experience: In the PJM market, power generation profits are split into energy and capacity components. Energy profits are influenced by fuel price cycles, while capacity profits are influenced by supply-demand dynamics. The profit margin for power generation is estimated to be between 2-4% [1][12][13] - Calpine Case Study: Calpine, a major independent power producer, saw stable EBITDA margins of around 22% from 2009-2015, demonstrating that market-based trading can stabilize profitability despite fuel price fluctuations [1][18][19] Ancillary Services - Increased Demand for Ancillary Services: High renewable energy penetration has driven the need for backup and frequency regulation services. In the CAISO market, backup and frequency regulation revenues doubled after renewable energy penetration exceeded 15% [1][20][22] - Factors Favoring Deep Peak Shaving: Three key factors contribute to the profitability of deep peak shaving: widening peak-valley price differences, declining fuel prices, and increased peak pricing periods. For example, the peak-valley price difference in CAISO increased from 102% to 250% between 2016 and 2023 [1][20][23] - PJM Market Ancillary Services: In the PJM market, thermal power accounts for over 70% of synchronous backup services, while thermal power and energy storage each account for about 50% of frequency regulation revenues [1][22][24] China Market Implications - Ancillary Services Market Potential: The reform of China's power sector is expected to create a 388 billion RMB ancillary services market by 2030, with thermal power as the main provider. Regions with high renewable energy penetration, such as Qinghai and Gansu, are expected to benefit significantly [1][20][30] - Focus on Renewable Energy Integration: Provinces with high renewable energy penetration and large-capacity power units are likely to see higher compensation standards for ancillary services. For example, Jiangsu and Zhejiang are under pressure to ensure renewable energy integration and power supply reliability [1][20][30] Investment Recommendations - Thermal Power Companies: Companies like Huadian International, Zhejiang Energy, and China Resources Power are recommended due to their high ROE, high dividends, and low valuations [1][20] - Renewable Energy Leaders: Companies like Three Gorges Energy and Longyuan Power are expected to accelerate their development with the implementation of ancillary services [1][20]