国内观察：2024年7月金融数据-社融口径下的人民币贷款为何出现负增长

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In July 2024, M2 increased by 6.3% year-on-year, up from 6.2% in June[2] - M1 saw a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, a significant recovery from a decline of -5.0% in the previous month[2] - New RMB loans amounted to 260 billion yuan, a decrease of 85.9 billion yuan compared to the previous year[2] - Total social financing (TSF) reached 770.8 billion yuan, an increase of 234.2 billion yuan year-on-year[2] - The growth rate of TSF stock was 8.2%, slightly up from 8.1% in June[2] Group 2: Economic Implications - The negative growth in RMB loans indicates insufficient real financing demand, reflecting weak domestic demand[2] - The July data is seen as a reflection of the transitional pains in the economy as mentioned in the Politburo meeting[2] - Government bond financing in July was 691.1 billion yuan, an increase of 280.2 billion yuan year-on-year, continuing to support TSF[2] - Corporate bond financing was low, with net financing of 9.7 billion yuan, but the decline in the base has mitigated the impact[2] - The increase in bill financing indicates a high short-term demand from banks amid limited real financing needs[2]