Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral with a target price of HKD 29.00, indicating a potential upside of 14.4% from the current closing price of HKD 25.35 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company's online business remains stable, and copyright operations have exceeded expectations, with a focus on the incremental contributions from short dramas and derivative products [1]. - In the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 4.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28%, surpassing market expectations of 13% [1]. - Adjusted net profit for the same period was RMB 700 million, reflecting a 16% year-on-year increase, which also exceeded market expectations by 7% [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 7.804 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 11.3% after a decline in 2023 [3][8]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is expected to be RMB 1.397 billion, with a corresponding net profit margin of 17% [3][8]. - The company’s core IP operations are anticipated to grow by 34% year-on-year, with revenue adjustments reflecting a strong performance in IP licensing and production [2][8]. Business Segments Overview - Online business revenue slightly decreased by 2% year-on-year, with self-owned channels maintaining a stable user base of 105 million monthly active users and 8.8 million paying users [1][7]. - Copyright operations saw a significant increase of 73% year-on-year, driven by the release of major series and the expansion of core IP licensing [1][7]. - New business segments, including short dramas and derivative products, are expected to contribute positively, with the GMV of IP card games reaching RMB 100 million in the first half of 2024 [1][2]. Valuation - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2024 has been slightly raised by 1% to RMB 1.4 billion, based on a compound annual growth rate of 21% from 2023 to 2025 [2][8]. - The target price is maintained at HKD 29, referencing a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 times for comparable quality content and copyright companies [2][9]. - The company is expected to maintain healthy growth in IP licensing and production, with new revenue streams from short dramas and derivative products gradually emerging [2][8].
阅文集团：在线业务维稳，版权运营超预期，关注短剧/衍生品增量贡献