证券研究报告：传媒|点评报告 发布时间：2026-03-30 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 784.68 | | 52 周最高 | 1021.75 | | 52 周最低 | 591.71 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） 研究所 分析师:王晓萱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522080005 Email:wangxiaoxuan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《AI 重塑游戏：供给革新与需求跃迁， 开启游戏产业新周期》 - 2026.03.25 分账新政重塑长剧商业生态，关注内容供给侧表现 ⚫ 事件回顾 2026 年 3 月 13 日，2026 中国电视剧制作产业大会在深圳召开， 国家广电总局明确长剧、中剧、微短剧协同发展导向，呼吁各平台完 善"保底+分成"模式，即平台承担保底制作成本，与片方按一定比例分 成净收益部分。 ⚫ 投资要点 我们建议关注：1）优质影视内容制作方：华策影视、欢瑞世纪、 光线传媒；2）平台及配套服务方：芒果超媒、横店影视；3）具备优 质 IP 向影视内容转化能力的标的：中文在线、掌阅科技、阅文集团。 ⚫ 风险提 ...

执业证书编号：S0680526020003 执业证书编号：S0680526020002 邮箱：liuwenxuan@gszq.com 邮箱：zhaohainan@gszq.com 证券研究报告|行业周报 2026 03 30 年 月 日 看 好 低 估 值 高 景 气 游 戏 板 块 ， 关 注 A I & I P 产业变化 传 媒 互 联 网 周 观 察 （ 260323 - 260327 ） 分析师 刘文轩 分析师 赵海楠 打造极致专业与效率 国盛传媒互联网·周观察 上周行情复盘 ➢ 周观点 风险提示：宏观经济波动；技术落地进度低于预期；AI应用商业化进展不及预期；行业监管趋严。 2 ➢ 大幅跑输大盘，成交额及占比双回落。上周（3月23日-3月27日）传媒（申万）指数下跌1.4%，跑输上证指数0.3%，成交额1,817亿元，环比缩小；成交额占万得全A比例 为1.7%，环比降低。 ➢ 子版块&个股：各子板块全线收跌，粤传媒周涨幅9%领涨；天地在线周跌幅9%领跌。 ➢ 归因分析：上周板块继续缩量下跌，但跌幅收窄明显；周内呈现宽幅震荡。反映中东局势紧张的情绪冲击，正在逐渐变弱市场风偏在恢复平静 —— ，但还没有 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the gaming sector, highlighting it as undervalued with high growth potential [4][19]. Core Insights - The media and internet sector experienced a decline, with the media index dropping by 1.4%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.3%. The trading volume decreased to 181.7 billion yuan, reflecting a shrinking market [5][6]. - The gaming sector is recommended for investment due to its low valuation and high growth potential, with expected strong performance in Q1 and the full year from companies like Giant Network and Century Huatong [19]. - The AI sector is highlighted for its exponential growth, with the daily usage of "tokens" surpassing 140 trillion in March 2026, marking a growth of over 1000 times in two years. Companies such as Minimax and Alibaba are suggested for investment [19][20]. - The IP industry is noted for its upward trend, driven by AI integration and long-term sustainability. Companies like Pop Mart and Reading Group are recommended for continued observation [19][23]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The media index underperformed, with a 1.4% decline and a trading volume of 181.7 billion yuan, which is a decrease from previous weeks [5][6]. - All sub-sectors within media saw declines, with digital media dropping over 2% and advertising marketing down more than 1.5% [15]. Gaming Sector - The gaming sector is advised for investment, with expectations of high growth in Q1 and the entire year. Notable companies include Giant Network and Century Huatong [19]. - Upcoming game releases such as "Honor of Kings World" and "Yihuan" are anticipated to maintain supply-side strength [19]. AI Sector - The AI sector is experiencing rapid growth, with the daily token usage reaching 140 trillion, indicating significant market expansion [19][20]. - Investment opportunities are identified in companies like Minimax and Alibaba, focusing on large models and cloud computing [19]. IP Industry - The IP industry is on an upward trajectory, supported by AI and physical integration, with companies like Pop Mart and Reading Group highlighted for their growth potential [19][23]. - Recent collaborations and product launches in the IP space indicate a vibrant market, with Pop Mart's partnership with FIFA being a notable example [22][23].

机构：中金公司 研究员：张雪晴/焦杉 公司动态 公司近况 2026 年3 月28 日，阅文集团主办了阅文IP产业影响力论坛，我们受邀参会。论坛上，阅文管理层分享 了阅文在AI时代的IP生态机遇，并正式发布"火种计划"，相关嘉宾亦围绕IP衍生品与实体化展开圆桌讨 论。我们认为阅文IP+AI生态加速发展，空间广阔，建议当前位置积极布局。 评论 AI已验证IP规模化生产路径，内容供给侧迎来结构性扩容。公司管理层表示，阅文已将超千部网文转化 为漫剧，其中超百部播放破千万，26 部破亿，自制漫剧成功率达行业均值5 倍，初步证明AI+IP模式已 跑通；而当前阅文IP开发率不足1‰，超99%的IP仍处于文字形态，AI技术将激活海量沉睡IP，打开长 期增长空间。 发布"火种计划"，构建AIGC内容供给侧生态。论坛现场，阅文正式发布"火种计划"，计划签约1000 位 AI导演，投入超1 亿元扶持个人创作者，共创AIGC生态。公司管理层认为，文学领域AI是助手（作家 主导）、视觉领域AI是引擎（激活90%未开发IP）、出海领域AI是桥梁（AI翻译覆盖数十种语言，海外 收入同比增40%）；"火种计划"将有效助力"创作者+好IP+A ...

机构：广发证券 研究员：旷实/周喆 核心观点： 事件：我们参加了3 月27-28 日阅文举办的2025 年IP 盛典和IP 产业影响力论坛。IP 盛典覆盖IP 全产业 链，在各个内容品类进行了优质内容和IP 改编作品的嘉奖，是IP 开发的风向标。IP 产业影响力论坛， 邀请了漫剧制作方酱油文化创始人、Vidu 等AI 视频工具创始人、超级元气工厂和Hitcard 等创始人出 席，围绕IP+AI 融合发展展开讨论。 阅文CEO 侯晓楠分享阅文过去半年在AIGC 领域的探索，积极拥抱AI新浪潮的同时，坚守IP 平台价 值。阅文在过去半年将超1 千部网文转化为AI 漫剧，其中有超过100 部漫剧播放量超过千万，有26 部 漫剧播放量破亿，阅文自制漫剧成功率是行业均值的5 倍+。阅文拥有上千万部原创网文，是中国文化 产业核心内容源头，但IP 开发率不足0.1%，绝大部分IP 仍未被视觉化开发。酱油文化创始人分享AI 漫 剧行业发展趋势，目前行业规模已经超过200 亿元人民币，预计加入拟真人剧后有望向千亿元规模发 展。AI 漫剧较传统影视制作成本下降80%、周期缩短70%。IP 是漫剧的核心价值锚点。Vidu 的创始人 ...

Group 1 - The core event of the "2025 Reading IP Gala" showcased the integration of AI into the entire IP value chain, positioning AI as a new engine for activating IP value [2][5] - The gala highlighted that 5 out of the top 10 long dramas and 9 out of the top 10 animated series in 2025 were adaptations of Reading's IP, indicating the dominance of its IP in the industry [2] - The evolution of the IP industry is reflected in the transition from short dramas to derivative products and new business models, showcasing the rapid expansion of IP value boundaries [2] Group 2 - In the derivative products and trendy toys sector, Reading Group's overall GMV for IP derivatives surpassed 1.1 billion RMB in 2025, marking over a 100% year-on-year growth and setting a historical high [3] - The launch of AI-driven animated dramas has led to the production of over a thousand works in just six months, with 26 pieces exceeding 100 million views, significantly outperforming industry averages [3] - Reading Group's strategy emphasizes the synergy between its vast IP reserves and top-tier creator ecosystem, with AI acting as an accelerator to unlock new growth opportunities for IP value [3] Group 3 - The global Chinese literature competition, co-launched by Reading Group and Singapore's "Lianhe Zaobao," attracted over 50,000 entries from 60 countries, exemplifying the international outreach of China's online literature model [4] - An industry forum held during the gala discussed new trends in the IP industry in the AI era, while an immersive experience called "Macau Pain City" was created to blend IP culture with local characteristics [4] - The combination of new business models and AI's impact on content production is establishing "IP+AI+ecosystem" as a new paradigm for amplifying IP value [5]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report suggests a positive outlook for the internet sector, particularly in e-commerce, social entertainment media, online travel, short videos, and IP-driven markets, with expectations of marginal improvements in profitability and stock performance for companies like Meituan and Tencent [4][15][18] - The gaming sector is expected to maintain strong fundamentals, with Tencent and NetEase identified as companies with significant valuation advantages, alongside recommendations for Century Huatong and Giant Network due to their robust product pipelines [4][18] - The advertising sector shows promising growth, with a notable increase in internet advertising investments, particularly around major events like the Winter Olympics and World Cup, indicating a potential boost for companies like Focus Media [4][18] Group 2: Industry Trends - The report highlights the ongoing competition in the e-commerce space, with Meituan focusing on high-quality growth and improving its economic model, which may lead to a rebound in stock prices [4][15][16] - In the social entertainment media sector, Tencent is expected to leverage the commercialization potential of WeChat, while Bilibili is projected to lead in advertising growth [4][15][18] - The AI sector is anticipated to enter a new phase of model iteration in Q2 2026, with significant investment trends centered around computing power and model development, suggesting a potential revaluation of AI-related companies [4][20] Group 3: Company Performance - Meituan's first quarter of 2026 is expected to show improvements in its delivery service profitability, with a focus on maintaining market share in core categories [4][15][16] - Tencent's new game "King of Glory: World" has recently topped the iOS sales chart, indicating strong market competitiveness and potential for future growth [4][12][18] - Kuaishou reported a total revenue of 142.8 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a 12.5% year-on-year growth, with adjusted net profit increasing by 16.5% [4][33]

[Table_Page] 跟踪研究|媒体Ⅱ 证券研究报告 | [Table_Title] 【 广 发 传 媒 | & | 海 外 】 阅 文 集 团 | | --- | --- | --- | | （00772.HK） | | | | 分享 | AIGC | 探索：探讨 AI+IP 新浪潮 | [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | | | | [Table_ 单位:Finance] 人民币百万元 | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 8,121 | 7,366 | 7,949 | 8,264 | 8,550 | | 增长率（ % ） | 16% | -9% | 8% | 4% | 3% | | EBITDA | 729 | 477 | 1,173 | 1,384 | 1,574 | | NonGAAP 归母净利 | 1,142 | 858 | 1,455 | 1,617 | 1,782 | | 增长率（ ） % | 1% | -25% | 69% | 11% | ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the company reported a revenue of 7.366 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 9.3%, and a Non-IFRS net profit of 858.5 million yuan, down 24.8% year-on-year. Under IFRS, the company recorded a loss attributable to equity holders of 776 million yuan [1]. Group 1: Operational Performance - In 2025, the platform's average monthly active users (MAU) reached 138 million, a decrease of 17.3% year-on-year. The total number of paying users was 9 million, remaining relatively stable with a decline of 1.1% [1]. - The user structure showed characteristics of "total adjustment and value concentration," primarily due to the continuous loss of users from self-operated channels, while the value contribution of proprietary platform products became more pronounced [1]. - The average monthly revenue per paying user increased by 2.8% year-on-year, reaching 32.9 yuan [1]. Group 2: Overall Performance - The total revenue for 2025 was 7.366 billion yuan, with an operating loss of 804 million yuan. The Non-IFRS net profit was 858.5 million yuan, a decline of 24.8% year-on-year, mainly due to the recognition of significant goodwill and financial asset impairment losses related to New Classics Media in 2025 [1][2]. - The decline in copyright operations and other businesses was attributed to the postponement of film and television projects, which resulted in fewer releases and related revenue recognition [2]. Group 3: Online Business - Online business revenue for 2025 was 4.047 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.41% year-on-year. The monthly average paying users for proprietary platform products and Tencent's self-operated channels decreased by 1.1% due to increased promotional activities leading to some low-paying users being classified as free users [2]. - The structure of paying users continued to optimize, with a decrease in the proportion of small-paying users, which contributed to the increase in average monthly revenue per paying user [2]. - The core product operations and improved content quality led to a slight increase in revenue from proprietary platforms, while significant growth in third-party platform revenue reflected the value added by the company's quality output to partners [2]. Group 4: Copyright Operations and Other Businesses - Revenue from copyright operations and other businesses was 3.3191 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 18.86%, mainly due to the reduced number of releases from film and television projects affected by scheduling delays [2]. - The company continues to advance its "IP + AI" strategy, utilizing AI to enhance the efficiency of IP content production and monetization, with the GMV of IP derivatives reaching 1.1 billion yuan [2]. Group 5: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - Revenue forecasts for 2026-2028 are projected at 8.1 billion, 8.6 billion, and 9.2 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 1.45 billion, 1.59 billion, and 1.75 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 17, 15, and 14 times [3]. - Considering the rapid development of IP derivatives and AI dramas, along with a rich reserve of New Classics series, the company is estimated to have a target market value of 34.6 billion yuan for 2026, with a target price of 34 yuan and 39 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].

Group 1 - The report highlights the increasing interest in the secondary capital bonds (二永债) among investors due to their liquidity and coupon advantages compared to other credit bonds [4] - The analysis of institutional behavior in 二永债 indicates that public funds have the highest pricing power, while insurance institutions act as stabilizers in the market [4][5] - Three trading signals have been constructed for 二永债: public fund overbought/oversold signals, 10Y bond expectation signals, and allocation signals from insurance institutions, with respective success rates of 70%, 74%, and 64% [5][6] Group 2 - The 中证 A500 index has experienced continuous net outflows, with a significant increase in equity financing reaching 449.16 billion yuan, while the stock ETF saw a net outflow of 87.44 billion yuan [8][9] - The macro funding environment is described as balanced but slightly loose, with the central bank conducting a net injection of 65.8 billion yuan through reverse repos [8] Group 3 - The automotive sector saw a mixed performance, with the A-share automotive index underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, while companies like 小鹏汽车 reported significant revenue growth and profitability improvements [10][16] - 宇树科技's IPO process is accelerating, with a projected revenue of 1.71 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 335.4% [11] Group 4 - The report discusses the price increases in cloud computing services driven by rising AI demand and supply chain costs, with major players like 阿里云 and 百度智能云 announcing price hikes of up to 34% and 30% respectively [19][20] - The demand for AI inference is surging, with token consumption increasing significantly, indicating a robust growth trajectory for AI-related services [20][24] Group 5 - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from a global supply contraction and rising demand, with a focus on companies that can leverage their cost advantages and operational efficiencies [31][32] - The report emphasizes the potential for significant cash flow improvements in the chemical sector as supply expansion slows, leading to higher dividend yields for leading firms [31]