USA： Core Producer Prices Soft on Net in July； Lowering July Core PCE Tracking to +0.14%

Investment Rating - The report indicates a soft core producer price inflation, leading to a revised estimate for the core PCE price index increase of 0.14% in July, down from 0.17% previously [2][3]. Core Insights - The producer price index (PPI) rose by 0.1% in July, which was below expectations, with core producer prices remaining unchanged. The PPI excluding food and energy was flat, while the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services increased by 0.3% [2][3]. - Key components contributing to the PPI included a 0.6% increase in food prices and a 1.9% rise in energy prices. Retail margins saw a decline of 1.3% [2][3]. - The report highlights that the 'old methodology' core PPI for finished goods excluding food and energy increased by 0.1%, while core intermediate producer prices also rose by 0.1% [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Producer Price Index (PPI) - PPI increased by 0.1% month-over-month for July, with a year-over-year increase of 2.2%. This was below Goldman Sachs' forecast of 0.2% [2]. - PPI excluding food and energy remained unchanged month-over-month, with a year-over-year increase of 2.4% [2]. - PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services increased by 0.3% month-over-month, with a year-over-year increase of 3.3% [2]. Core PCE Price Index - The core PCE price index is now estimated to have risen by 0.14% in July, a slight decrease from the previous estimate of 0.17% [3]. - The report suggests that further updates will follow the upcoming CPI report [3]. Key Numbers - PPI for July: +0.1% (month-over-month), +2.2% (year-over-year) [2]. - PPI excluding food and energy: flat (month-over-month), +2.4% (year-over-year) [2]. - PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services: +0.3% (month-over-month), +3.3% (year-over-year) [2].