Thyssenkrupp Nucera （NCH2.US）A quarter of strong delivery， but lack of visibility on new green hydrogen orders weighs on forecasts

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for Thyssenkrupp Nucera (NCH2.DE) since November 13, 2023, with a 12-month price target of €10.50, indicating an upside potential of 23.9% from the current price of €8.48 [3][14]. Core Insights - Thyssenkrupp Nucera reported its highest quarterly revenue of €235.7 million in 3Q24, driven by ongoing projects in the Chlor-alkali (CA) and Alkaline Water Electrolysis (AWE) divisions [14][15]. - The order intake for 3Q24 was €271.3 million, a significant increase of 261% quarter-over-quarter, with AWE order intake reaching €220.1 million, 19 times higher than the previous quarter [14][20]. - The total backlog as of 3Q24 amounted to €1.3 billion, reflecting an 8% increase quarter-over-quarter [14][20]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: €837.7 million for 2024E, €935.8 million for 2025E, and €1,065.3 million for 2026E, indicating a recovery from previous lows [14][39]. - The company expects to achieve EBITDA breakeven by 2026, with a projected EBITDA margin of approximately 5.5% by 2026E [39][54]. - The AWE division is anticipated to be the largest revenue contributor, with expected revenues rising from approximately €5 million in 2021 to around €504 million in 2024E and €1,900 million by 2030E [28][39]. Market Outlook - Despite strong order intake, the report highlights a slower pace in global awards for large-scale electrolyzers, primarily due to regulatory uncertainties and delays in final investment decisions [19][20]. - The company has a robust project pipeline and a strong balance sheet, supported by IPO proceeds, which will facilitate planned capacity expansions [14][39]. - Thyssenkrupp Nucera's growth strategy includes significant capital expenditures, estimated between €150 million to €250 million from 2023 to 2026E, aimed at supporting AWE growth and enhancing financial stability [54][55].