2024年7月社融数据点评：直接融资支撑社融，人民币贷款偏弱

Group 1: Social Financing Overview - As of the end of July 2024, the total social financing stock was CNY 395.72 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the end of June[3] - In July, the social financing increment was CNY 770.8 billion, lower than market expectations, but CNY 234.2 billion higher than the same period last year[3] - The total amount of RMB loans to the real economy decreased by CNY 76.7 billion in July, marking the first negative growth since July 2005, and a year-on-year reduction of CNY 113.1 billion[3] Group 2: Loan Dynamics - From January to July 2024, RMB loans increased by CNY 13.53 trillion, with July alone seeing an increment of CNY 260 billion, a year-on-year decrease of CNY 859 billion[8] - Corporate loans increased by CNY 130 billion in July, while short-term loans decreased by CNY 550 billion, reflecting a year-on-year reduction of CNY 1.71 trillion[8] - Household loans decreased by CNY 210 billion in July, with short-term loans down by CNY 215.6 billion, continuing a trend of weak consumer credit demand[9] Group 3: Financing Structure - Direct financing saw a year-on-year increase, with new direct financing reaching CNY 917 billion in July, up CNY 298.5 billion from the previous year[5] - Government bond financing amounted to CNY 691.1 billion in July, a year-on-year increase of CNY 280.2 billion, primarily due to a low base effect[5] - The proportion of new RMB loans in the total social financing increment turned negative, indicating a shift towards direct financing sources[5] Group 4: Monetary Indicators - M2 growth was 6.3% year-on-year as of the end of July, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but down 4.4 percentage points from the same period last year[13] - M1 decreased by 6.6% year-on-year, with the gap between M1 and M2 widening to 12.9 percentage points, reflecting weak corporate expectations and a shift in deposits[13] - The total RMB deposits decreased by CNY 800 billion in July, a year-on-year reduction of CNY 3.2 trillion, mainly due to increased deposits from households and non-bank financial institutions[13]