2024年7月进出口数据点评：海外经济下行风险显现，“抢出口”与“抢进口”并存

Group 1: Export Performance - In July, China's export amount reached $300.56 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 7%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, and below the market expectation of 9.5%[2] - Exports to the EU and the US increased by 8.1% and 8% respectively in July, marking a continuous recovery for four months[3] - Exports to ASEAN grew by 10.8% from January to July, but the growth rate for July alone was 12.16%, down by 2.86 percentage points from the previous value[3] Group 2: Import Trends - In July, China's import amount was $149 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 3.5%[2] - The import of high-tech products and electromechanical products saw a year-on-year increase of 11.9% and 8% respectively from January to July, contributing to the overall import growth[5] - The import of coal, natural gas, and agricultural products like soybeans and grains showed declines of -6.0%, 0%, -18.4%, and -15.5% respectively[5] Group 3: Trade Balance - China's trade surplus in July decreased to $84.65 billion, reflecting a scenario of weakening exports and strengthening imports[2] - The overall trade data for July indicated a reversal of the trend, with exports declining while imports increased[5] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The global manufacturing PMI for July was 49.7%, indicating a contraction, with significant declines in the US and Japan's manufacturing PMIs to 46.8% and 49.1% respectively[2] - The ongoing semiconductor cycle and the upcoming US elections may provide short-term support for exports, despite the overall external economic environment showing signs of weakness[5]