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财报视角图解“一揽子化债”以来基投企业变化
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-12-11 08:54
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the implementation of the "Comprehensive Debt Resolution Plan," the infrastructure investment and financing industry has entered a "deceleration cycle" in debt net financing, with the debt scale of investment enterprises still growing but at a significantly slower pace, and the "control of increase and resolution of existing debt" has shown results [5][6]. - The financing channels of investment enterprises have been adjusted, with the proportion of bond and non - standard financing in total debt decreasing, and the characteristic of bank - based financing channels becoming more prominent [5][23]. - The overall debt term structure of investment enterprises has not improved significantly, but the short - term debt ratio in most key provinces has decreased or is at a low level, reducing liquidity pressure [5][26]. - The comprehensive financing cost of the investment industry has generally shown a downward trend, with regional differentiation in the decline, and the financing cost reduction in key provinces and economically strong provinces is more obvious [5][28]. - In terms of operation and development, the growth rate of inventory and accounts receivable has slowed down in 2024, and the cash collection has accelerated, but the cash reserve of enterprises is tight, and the investment progress has slowed down [5][36]. - The profitability of investment enterprises has weakened since 2024, and the dependence on government subsidies has increased [5][49][52]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Debt Resolution - **Debt Net Financing in the "Deceleration Cycle"**: After the implementation of the "35 - Document," the debt net financing amount and net financing rate of investment enterprises have declined significantly. Key provinces entered the debt net repayment state earlier, and in 2024, the net financing rate of key provinces dropped to 1.11 times. In 2025, the debt net financing amount and net financing rate continued to decline, and it is expected to remain at a low level in 2026. There are also differences in the debt net financing performance among regions [6]. - **Slowing Debt Growth and Asset Expansion**: The debt scale of investment enterprises is still growing but at a significantly slower pace. Some key provinces have seen a decline in debt scale, and the debt growth rate of non - key provinces has dropped significantly. The asset growth rate has also slowed down, and the asset growth rate of key provinces is significantly lower than that of non - key provinces. The asset - liability ratio and total capitalization ratio of the industry are still rising [13][17]. - **Adjusted Financing Channels**: The bond balance of investment enterprises is still growing, but the growth rate has dropped significantly in 2024. The proportion of bond and non - standard financing in total debt has decreased, and the proportion of bank loans has increased [23]. - **Insignificant Improvement in Debt Term Structure**: The overall short - term debt ratio of investment enterprises has slightly increased, but most key provinces have seen a decrease in the short - term debt ratio or are at a low level. There are also differences in the adjustment of the debt term structure among non - key provinces [26]. - **Declining Financing Costs with Regional Differentiation**: Since 2022, the weighted average financing cost of investment enterprises has been declining. In 2023 and 2024, the financing cost decreased by about 22 and 17 basis points respectively, and in the first half of 2025, it further decreased by 48 basis points. Key provinces and economically strong provinces have more obvious financing cost reduction [28]. Operation and Development - **Slowing Growth of Inventory and Receivables and Faster Cash Collection**: In 2024, the growth rate of inventory and accounts receivable of investment enterprises slowed down, and the cash collection accelerated. However, there are still a large number of projects in progress with slow cash collection. There are also differences in the growth of inventory and accounts receivable among regions [36]. - **Tight Cash Reserves**: Due to project construction and debt repayment in some regions, the cash reserves of investment enterprises are tight. Although the scale of monetary funds increased in the first half of 2025, the proportion in total assets is still low [42]. - **Slowing Investment Progress**: Under the influence of the "Comprehensive Debt Resolution" and tightened financing, the cash expenditure of investment enterprises on infrastructure and self - operated projects has decreased, and the investment progress has slowed down [44]. - **Slowed Transformation Investment and Asset Injection**: The investment in industrial and equity investment for enterprise transformation has slowed down since 2024. The growth of relevant operating assets mainly comes from the injection of shareholders or the government, and the efficient use of existing assets is an important way to improve the operating conditions [47]. - **Weakening Profitability**: The net profit of investment enterprises has been declining, and the profitability has weakened. The period cost has a large impact on profits, and the self - driving force for cost reduction and efficiency improvement needs to be strengthened [49]. - **Increased Dependence on Government Subsidies**: The contribution of investment income and fair - value change gains and losses to profits has not been effectively reflected. The proportion of other income in net profit has increased, and the dependence on government subsidies has increased [52].
资产支持票据产品报告(2025年11月):资产支持票据发行规模同比环比均下降,个人消费金融和小微贷款类资产发行节奏有所回落
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-12-11 07:30
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report In November 2025, the issuance scale of asset - backed notes decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the issuance rhythm of personal consumer finance and micro - enterprise loan assets slowed down. The secondary - market trading volume and transaction amount also declined significantly compared with the previous month and the same period last year [3][4][19]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Issuance Situation - **Overall Issuance**: In November 2025, 48 asset - backed note products were issued, with a total issuance scale of 43.08 billion yuan. The number of issuances remained the same as the previous month, but the scale decreased by 16.25%. Compared with the same period last year, the number of issuances decreased by 13, and the scale decreased by 32.29%. Only 2 products were publicly issued, and the rest were privately placed [4][5]. - **Top Issuing Institutions**: Xiamen Trust ranked first in terms of issuance scale in November 2025, with an issuance scale of 3.00 billion yuan, accounting for 6.96%. The top ten issuing institutions had a total issuance scale of 22.636 billion yuan, accounting for 52.54% [5]. - **Underlying Asset Types**: The underlying asset types of the issued products mainly included accounts receivable, subsidies, personal consumer finance, micro - enterprise loans, and general financial leasing. Among them, accounts receivable products accounted for 19.69% of the scale, and subsidy products accounted for 17.98% [7]. - **Issuance Scale Distribution**: The highest single - product issuance scale was 2.069 billion yuan, and the lowest was 0.201 billion yuan. The number and scale of products with a single - issuance scale in the range of (5, 10] billion yuan were the largest, with 27 products issued, accounting for 53.70% of the scale [9]. - **Term Distribution**: The shortest - term product was 0.21 years, and the longest was 18.01 years. The number and scale of products with a term in the range of (0, 1] years were the largest, with 18 products issued, accounting for 34.67% of the scale [11][13]. - **Rating Distribution**: According to the issuance scale of notes at each rating level, AAAsf - rated notes accounted for 87.39%, AA + sf - rated notes accounted for 5.62%, and A + sf - rated notes accounted for 0.12% [13]. - **Issuance Interest Rate**: The minimum issuance interest rate of one - year - around AAAsf - rated notes was 1.65%, the maximum was 2.45%, and the interest - rate center was approximately 1.77% [15]. - **ABCP Product Issuance**: In November 2025, 17 ABCP products were issued, with a total issuance scale of 15.977 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 46.29%, accounting for 37.09% of the ABN issuance scale. The underlying assets mainly included five types, and subsidy - related ABCP accounted for 48.49% of the ABCP issuance scale [18]. 3.2 Secondary - Market Trading Situation In November 2025, there were a total of 478 secondary - market transactions of asset - backed notes. The number of transactions decreased by 21.51% month - on - month and 25.08% year - on - year. The transaction amount was 39.842 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 13.65% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.76%. The more actively traded categories in the secondary market were mainly REITs - like products, accounts receivable, micro - enterprise loans, personal consumer finance, and subsidies [19].
国际宏观资讯双周报-20251209
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-12-09 07:07
Economic Insights - UAE's non-oil GDP grew by 5.7% in the first half of 2025, contributing 77.5% to the total GDP, with a projected actual GDP growth of 4.2%[15] - GCC's economic scale is expected to reach $2.3 trillion in 2024, with non-oil economy accounting for 76% of GDP and a trade surplus of $109.7 billion[16] - Iran's non-oil trade volume reached $76.54 billion in the first eight months, a 9.4% year-on-year decline, with exports at $37 billion and imports at $39.54 billion[29] Political Developments - European leaders, including French President Macron, visited China to enhance economic cooperation amid pressures from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with Germany and the UK planning similar visits[11] - Bangladesh's new political party faces challenges ahead of the February elections, with a current support rate of only 6%[26] Sovereign Credit Ratings - S&P upgraded Azerbaijan's credit outlook to positive, maintaining a BB+ rating, reflecting reduced conflict risks and strong fiscal buffers[39] - Moody's upgraded Laos' credit rating from Caa3 to Caa2, citing improved external financing and stable macroeconomic conditions[40] - Fitch upgraded Oman's credit rating from BB+ to BBB-, indicating improved public and external asset positions[42] Inflation and Fiscal Policies - Iran's national debt yield surpassed 40%, with tax revenue reaching its highest GDP ratio in nearly seven years, indicating fiscal pressures[21][22] - UAE announced new VAT regulations effective January 1, 2026, aimed at enhancing compliance and administrative efficiency[24] - Saudi Arabia's 2026 budget anticipates a fiscal deficit of $44 billion, approximately 3.3% of GDP, with total expenditures projected at $348 billion[25]
地方政府债与城投行业监测周报2022年第9期:国有林场资源被禁止无偿划拨至城投,吉林融资平台数量已压降超七成-20251202
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-12-02 05:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high - pressure situation of implicit debt supervision remains unchanged, and emphasis is placed on preventing "the risk of risk disposal". The prohibition of free allocation of state - owned forest farm resources to urban investment platforms and the progress of some regions in exiting the list of key debt - risk provinces are significant events that will impact the local government debt and urban investment industry [3][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. News Review - The "Document No. 1343 of Fagai Nongjing" prohibits the free allocation of state - owned forest farm resources to local state - owned investment and financing platforms and provides a market - oriented participation path. This not only ensures the safe and reasonable use of forest farm resources but also provides a model for local government asset allocation to urban investment enterprises, preventing local debt risks and guiding the market - oriented transformation of urban investment enterprises. It also encourages urban investment enterprises to participate in the development and operation of forest farm resources through market - based cooperation [6][9][11]. - Jilin Province has met the conditions to exit the list of key debt - risk provinces, and Anhui Province has taken multiple measures to prevent local debt risks. After Jilin exits the list, there will be both opportunities and risks for local investment and financing. Anhui has proposed five countermeasures to address local debt issues [6][12][13]. - Five urban investment enterprises declared to become market - oriented business entities or exit the financing platform list this week, mainly at the district - county and municipal levels with AA - level ratings. Jilin has become the third province to publicly state that it meets the conditions to exit the list of key debt - risk provinces [6][15]. - Seventeen urban investment enterprises prepaid bond principal and interest this week, involving 21 bonds with a total scale of 2.803 billion yuan [6][20]. - Two urban investment bonds were cancelled this week. As of November 23, 94 urban investment bonds have been postponed or cancelled this year, with a total scale of 60.658 billion yuan [6][21]. 3.2. Issuance of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - This week, the issuance and net financing scale of local government bonds decreased. The issuance progress of new bonds exceeded 90% (excluding the activation of the remaining quota). There is still 357.6 million yuan left in this year's 2 - trillion - yuan replacement quota, and only Henan Province has not completed the issuance. The weighted average issuance term of local government bonds was 14.30 years, and the weighted average issuance interest rate increased to 2.07% [6][22][23]. - This week, the issuance and net financing scale of urban investment bonds increased, the issuance interest rate decreased, and the spread narrowed. A total of 146 urban investment bonds were issued, with a total scale of 98.416 billion yuan. The weighted average issuance term was 3.44 years. Four overseas urban investment bonds were issued, with a total scale of 2.308 billion yuan [6][29]. 3.3. Trading of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - This week, the central bank conducted 1.676 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 434 billion yuan. Short - term capital interest rates fluctuated. There were no adjustments to urban investment ratings or credit risk events this week [35]. - The trading volume of local government bond cash bonds increased by 14.00% to 45.5755 billion yuan, and the maturity yield decreased by an average of 2.89BP. The trading volume of urban investment bonds decreased by 1.31% to 27.7139 billion yuan, and the maturity yield fluctuated. The spreads of 1 - year and 3 - year AA+ urban investment bonds widened, while the spread of 5 - year AA+ urban investment bonds narrowed [35]. - Nine urban investment bonds of nine urban investment entities had 11 abnormal trades, with the number of entities, bonds, and abnormal trades decreasing compared to last week [36]. 3.4. Important Announcements of Urban Investment Enterprises - Eighty urban investment enterprises issued announcements regarding changes in senior management, legal representatives, directors, supervisors, etc., changes in controlling shareholders and actual controllers, equity/asset transfers, changes in the use of raised funds, and name changes [41].
企业资产支持证券产品报告(2025年10月):发行规模环比收缩,融资成本下行态势趋缓,二级市场活跃度环比走低但同比仍呈提升趋势
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-11-28 06:01
Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the enterprise asset-backed securities (ABS) products in October 2025, covering issuance, filing, secondary market trading, and maturity situations [4]. Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - In October 2025, the issuance scale of enterprise ABS shrank month - on - month, the downward trend of financing cost slowed, the secondary market activity decreased month - on - month but still showed an upward trend year - on - year [4]. Group 4: Issuance Situation - In October 2025, 105 enterprise ABS were issued, with a total scale of 95.087 billion yuan. The number decreased by 85 and the scale dropped by 42.19% month - on - month, while the number increased by 10 and the scale rose by 21.47% year - on - year [4][5]. - The top five original equity holders in terms of issuance scale were China Pacific Life Insurance Co., Ltd., Huaneng Guocheng Trust Co., Ltd., China CITIC Financial Asset Management Co., Ltd., Shenzhen Zhongrong Micro - loan Co., Ltd., and China Foreign Economic and Trade Trust Co., Ltd., with a total scale of 25.375 billion yuan, accounting for 26.69% [6]. - The top five managers in terms of new management scale were CITIC Securities Co., Ltd., CITIC Construction Investment Securities Co., Ltd., Huatai Securities (Shanghai) Asset Management Co., Ltd., Ping An Securities Co., Ltd., and Shanghai Guotai Haitong Securities Asset Management Co., Ltd., with a total scale of 56.361 billion yuan, accounting for 59.27% [6]. - The underlying asset types mainly included personal consumer finance, enterprise financial leasing, accounts receivable, micro - loans, and policy - pledged loans [4]. - The interest rate center of AAAsf - rated securities with a maturity of about one year was approximately between 1.80% - 2.00%, with the median unchanged month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of about 47BP [4]. Group 5: Filing Situation - In October 2025, 130 enterprise ABS were filed with the Asset Management Association of China, with a total scale of 135.031 billion yuan [4][22]. Group 6: Secondary Market Trading Situation - In October 2025, there were 3,463 transactions of enterprise ABS in the exchange market, with a total turnover of 81.889 billion yuan. The number of transactions decreased by 549 month - on - month and increased by 659 year - on - year, and the turnover decreased by 23.47% month - on - month and increased by 34.63% year - on - year [4][23]. - The more active underlying asset types in the secondary market were REIT - like products, accounts receivable, CMBS, personal consumer finance, and enterprise financial leasing, with turnover accounting for 29.56%, 12.71%, 11.51%, 11.13%, and 8.52% respectively [23]. Group 7: Maturity Situation - In November 2025, 387 outstanding enterprise ABS were due, with a total scale of 91.943 billion yuan [4][25]. - The main underlying asset types of the due ABS were accounts receivable, supply chain, personal consumer finance, and policy - pledged loans, with due scales accounting for 44.48%, 22.92%, 9.45%, and 4.89% respectively [25]. - The top three original equity holders in terms of due scale were China Railway Capital Co., Ltd., China Railway Construction Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd., and Shenzhen Qianhai Lianyirong Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd., with due scales accounting for 15.37%, 7.53%, and 5.57% respectively [25].
2025年11月房地产市场跟踪:10月房地产市场量价承压,“十五五”指引高质量发展路径
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-11-28 05:24
Investment Rating - The report indicates a focus on promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector, suggesting a positive long-term outlook for the industry [2][5]. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for a new development model in real estate, focusing on optimizing supply structures and enhancing living quality, which is a strategic move to address deep-rooted issues in the sector [2][3]. - The report highlights a shift from short-term regulatory measures to long-term mechanisms, indicating a more sustainable approach to managing the real estate market [5]. - The emphasis on "good housing" reflects a commitment to improving housing quality and meeting diverse housing needs, which is expected to enhance consumer confidence and stabilize the market [3][5]. Market Tracking Summary - In October, new home prices continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 19.60% in sales area and 25.06% in sales amount, indicating significant downward pressure [6]. - The report notes that the inventory of unsold properties remains high, despite a continuous decrease in the area of unsold properties for eight months [6][8]. - The financing environment for real estate companies is showing signs of improvement, with a net inflow of funds in the bond market, although market sentiment remains cautious [9]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates a significant decline in land transaction volumes and prices, with a 13% decrease in land area and a 20% drop in transaction value in October [7]. - The focus on revitalizing underutilized land and properties is highlighted as a key strategy for addressing supply-side challenges [3][5]. - The report emphasizes the need for a multi-tiered housing supply system to meet the diverse needs of different demographic groups, particularly for affordable and improved housing [5].
信用利差周报2025年第43期:货币政策报告延续宽松基调,香港百亿数字绿债落地-20251125
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-11-25 00:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's monetary policy report maintains a loose tone, focusing on "stable growth" and aiming to lower interest rates and reduce the real - financing cost. It also emphasizes the development of the bond market's "science and technology board" and the use of risk - sharing tools for science and technology innovation bonds [3][11]. - The issuance of Hong Kong's HK$10 billion digital green bonds sets a global record, marks the transition from pilot to regular operation of tokenized bonds in Hong Kong, and provides a reference for the mainland's financial infrastructure construction and product innovation [4][15]. - In October, China's economic indicators weakened, with consumption, investment, and industrial production showing a slowdown, and social financing and credit continuing to decline [5][18]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Hotspots - The Q3 Monetary Policy Report continues the "moderately loose" liquidity management framework, focuses on "stable growth", and emphasizes the development of a multi - level bond market and the support for key areas such as science and technology innovation. It also highlights the use of risk - sharing tools for science and technology innovation bonds, which may guide more funds into the science and technology field [11][13]. - On November 11, Hong Kong issued HK$10 billion digital green bonds, covering four currencies with a 2 - 5 - year term and an over - subscription of about 12 times. It is the first to use tokenized central bank currency for on - chain "delivery versus payment", which improves settlement efficiency and reduces risks, and marks the transition from pilot to regular operation of tokenized bonds in Hong Kong [4][15]. Macroeconomic Data - In October, China's economic indicators weakened. From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.2% and was negative for two consecutive months. The growth rate of social retail sales was 2.9%, declining for five consecutive months. Industrial production also declined, affected by factors such as holidays and export slowdown. In terms of financial data, social financing and credit continued to decline in October, with new social financing of 815 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 597 billion yuan for three consecutive months. M1 and M2 increased by 6.2% and 8.2% year - on - year respectively, with their scissors gap expanding to 2% [5][18]. Money Market - Last week, the central bank conducted five 7 - day reverse repurchase operations totaling 1.122 trillion yuan, with 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 626.2 billion yuan. Due to factors such as mid - month reserve requirements and tax payments, market capital demand was large, and capital prices generally increased. The pledged repurchase rates of all tenors increased by 2 - 10bp compared with the previous week [6][22]. Primary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the issuance scale of credit bonds decreased slightly to 251.409 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.624 billion yuan from the previous value. The average daily issuance scale was 50.282 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.125 billion yuan from the previous period. Except for the short - term financing bonds and publicly issued corporate bonds, the issuance scale of other bond types decreased. The issuance scale of the infrastructure investment and financing industry decreased, while that of industrial bonds increased. The average issuance cost of credit bonds mostly declined [7][25]. Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the secondary - market trading volume of bonds was 8.667564 trillion yuan, and the average daily trading volume decreased by 8.2813 billion yuan to 173.3513 billion yuan, with a slight decline in trading activity. The market still had a certain wait - and - see sentiment. Credit bonds performed slightly better than interest - rate bonds. The yields of most tenors of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds decreased, with a maximum decline of 3bp, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond dropped to 1.81%. The yields of credit bonds showed a differentiated performance between short and long - term tenors, with a maximum change of 8bp. Most of the rating spreads narrowed [8][37].
保险资产管理业创新型产品季度观察与展望:全年业务承压,结构分化加速,政策驱动布局住房租赁、基础设施以及空域经济项目
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-11-20 08:10
Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the insurance asset management industry, with a focus on structural adjustments and policy-driven opportunities in specific sectors [5][43]. Core Insights - The insurance asset management industry is experiencing a dual decline in the registration scale and quantity of innovative products, primarily due to a decrease in debt investment plans, while asset-backed plans and equity investment plans are showing growth [7][45]. - The report emphasizes the importance of aligning investment strategies with government policies, particularly in sectors such as energy, transportation, infrastructure, and housing rental [7][35][40]. - The overall debt risk in the industry is expected to remain within a controllable range, supported by government efforts to manage debt and promote economic growth [7][38][43]. Summary by Sections Product Operation Analysis - In the first three quarters of 2025, the registration scale of innovative products in the insurance asset management sector decreased by 3.97% year-on-year to 651.198 billion yuan, with a total of 296 products registered, reflecting a decline in debt investment plans [8][11]. - Debt investment plans remain the primary product type, accounting for 70.61% of the number and 49.31% of the scale, while asset-backed plans and equity investment plans are growing [8][10]. - The focus of debt investment plans is increasingly concentrated in the East China region, particularly in the transportation sector, indicating a shift towards infrastructure investments [10][13]. Institutional Operation Analysis - In the first three quarters of 2025, Huatai Asset Management led in the registration scale and quantity of debt investment plans, while Everbright's asset-backed plans showed significant growth [30][32]. - The number of institutions actively participating in equity investment plans increased, with a notable rise in the scale of registered plans [30][36]. - The report highlights a decrease in the number of registered private equity funds, indicating a cautious approach to alternative investments [28][36]. Industry Policy Review - Recent government policies encourage long-term capital participation in housing rental markets and infrastructure projects, aligning with the characteristics of insurance funds [37][41]. - The report notes that the overall government debt risk is manageable, with progress in addressing hidden debts, which supports a stable investment environment for insurance asset management [35][38]. - The focus on new policy financial tools aims to inject capital into key projects, particularly in energy and urban renewal sectors, providing investment opportunities for insurance asset management [38][41]. Observations and Outlook - The insurance asset management industry is expected to continue facing pressure in innovative product offerings, but remains a crucial financing tool [43][45]. - The report suggests prioritizing investments in energy transportation, infrastructure REITs, and housing rental asset securitization to balance long-term returns with policy compliance [43][45]. - The anticipated growth in sectors supported by government policies, such as artificial intelligence in transportation and green finance, presents new investment opportunities for insurance asset management [40][44].
2025年9月图说资产证券化产品:五部门支持商业地产项目REITs发行,ABS产品发行明显升温
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-11-13 11:58
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - The "15th Five-Year Plan" draft proposes to support the development of innovative products such as asset securitization and promote the high - quality development of the real estate industry [2] - The "Action Plan" supports the issuance of REITs for eligible commercial real estate projects, which is conducive to revitalizing the stock assets in the commercial real estate field and promoting the recovery of the real estate industry [3] - In September 2025, the issuance of asset - securitized products in the whole market increased significantly, and the issuance costs of different types of products were differentiated [7] - The issuance scale of products in the inter - bank and exchange markets has increased, with the largest increase in credit ABS [16] - The trading activity of ABS products in the secondary market has generally increased, and products such as class REITs and micro - enterprise loans have relatively active transactions [19] Summary by Directory 1. Overall Market Issuance Situation - In September 2025, a total of 299 issues of asset - securitized products were issued in the whole market, with a total scale of 268.78 billion yuan, a 43% increase from the previous period [7] - The average issuance costs of policy - loan - based and micro - enterprise - loan - based products were relatively high, while those of personal auto - loan products were relatively low [7] - The secondary - stratification ratios of products such as trust - beneficiary rights, shantytown - renovation/affordable - housing, and accounts - receivable did not exceed 10%, while that of non - performing - loan products remained at a high level [7] - The stratification ratios of different products with underlying assets such as micro - enterprise loans and class REITs varied greatly [7] - Exchange - traded ABS: 191 issues were issued, with a total scale of 164.946 billion yuan, a 41% increase from the previous month. The coupon rates of priority products with disclosed credit ratings ranged from 1.65% to 3.95% [13] 2. Issuance Situation in the Inter - bank and Exchange Markets - Inter - bank market ABS: 38 issues of products were issued, with a scale of 36.569 billion yuan, a 72% increase from the previous month. The priority products were all rated AAAsf, and the highest coupon rate was 2.80% [16] - The secondary - stratification ratios of products ranged from 12% to 35%, and nearly 90% of inter - bank ABS products had a secondary - stratification ratio of over 20% [16] - Transaction - Association ABN: 70 issues were issued, with a total scale of 67.363 billion yuan, a 16% increase from the previous month. The coupon rates of priority products with disclosed credit ratings ranged from 1.60% to 3.80% [17] 3. Secondary Market - Inter - bank market ABS: The total trading volume was 20.378 billion yuan, and the trading activity increased significantly. Non - performing - loan products had the largest trading volume [19] - Exchange - traded ABS: The total trading volume was 104.656 billion yuan, and the trading scale increased significantly from the previous month. Class REITs products had the largest trading volume [22] - Transaction - Association ABN: The total trading volume was 54.07 billion yuan, and the trading scale further increased. Micro - enterprise loans and bank/Internet consumer loans had relatively active transactions [25]
信用利差周报2025年第42期:首单科创可转债获批加强股债联动,债券收益率走势分化-20251113
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-11-13 09:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "Technology Board" of the bond market has achieved remarkable results after half a year of operation. As of November 7, the issuance scale of science - innovation bonds exceeded 1.8 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 77.98%. The approval of the first science - innovation convertible bond strengthens the stock - bond linkage, which is expected to optimize the credit market structure and promote the virtuous cycle of "science - industry - finance" [3][10]. - In October, the year - on - year CPI growth rate turned positive, and the import and export data showed resilience, indicating a certain recovery in consumer demand and domestic demand [4][13]. - Last week, the central bank net - withdrew funds through open - market operations, but under the support of monetary policy, most capital prices declined [5][16]. - In the primary market of credit bonds, the issuance scale continued to decline, and the issuance cost varied. In the secondary market, the trading activity decreased slightly, and the yields of credit bonds continued to decline [6][21][31]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Market Hotspots - The "Technology Board" of the bond market has been in operation for half a year. As of November 7, 1668 science - innovation bonds were issued this year, with a cumulative issuance scale of 18139.71 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 77.98%. The new science - innovation bonds have features such as better - matched terms, lower issuance costs, and diversified issuer structures. The first science - innovation convertible bond was approved, which provides a more flexible financing solution for high - growth technology enterprises and is expected to promote the virtuous cycle of "science - industry - finance" [10][11][12]. Macroeconomic Data - In October, the year - on - year CPI growth rate turned positive at 0.2%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding for six consecutive months. The year - on - year PPI decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points to - 2.1%. The export volume in October was 3053.5 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%, and the import volume was 2152.8 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%. The Sino - US trade surplus in October was 900.7 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9% [4][13][14]. Money Market - Last week, the central bank net - withdrew 15722 billion yuan through open - market operations. Under the support of monetary policy, most capital prices declined. Except for the 1 - day and 1 - month repurchase rates which increased by 1bp and 2bp respectively, the other term - pledged repurchase rates decreased, with a maximum decline of 5bp. The 3 - month and 1 - year Shibor decreased by 1bp and 2bp respectively, and the spread between them narrowed to 6bp [5][16]. Primary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the issuance scale of credit bonds continued to decline to 2770.33 billion yuan, a decrease of 156.11 billion yuan from the previous period. The cancellation of credit bond issuance increased to 32 billion yuan. Except for the ultra - short - term financing bonds and private placement notes, the issuance scale of other bond types decreased. The infrastructure investment and financing industry's issuance scale decreased, while the industrial bond issuance scale changed little. The average issuance cost of credit bonds varied, with the issuance costs of 3 - year and 5 - year bonds mostly decreasing and those of 1 - year bonds mostly increasing, with a change range of 2bp to 38bp [6][21][29]. Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the secondary - market trading volume of bonds was 90816.29 billion yuan, and the average daily trading volume decreased by 463.15 billion yuan to 18163.26 billion yuan, indicating a decline in trading activity. The yields of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds showed different trends. The yields of all - term treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds increased, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield increasing by 2bp to 1.81%. Most credit bond yields decreased, with a maximum decline of 9bp. The credit spreads of all terms generally narrowed, and most rating spreads also narrowed [7][31][41].