www.ccxi.com.cn 行业展望 | 贺文俊 027-87339288 | | | --- | --- | | wjhe@ccxi.com.cn | | | 余 璐 | 027-87339288 | 中诚信国际 中国环保运营行业 中国环保运营行业展望，2026 年 1 月 政策和市场双重驱动下，环保产业正迎来结构性变革与高质量发展的关 键转型期。垃圾焚烧发电行业虽面临区域供需失衡、盈利模式依赖政策 等挑战，但在存量整合、技术革新、国际化布局等多重因素推动下，正 加速向"市场驱动型"转型。危险废物处置行业仍处于"产能过剩、低 价竞争"的粗放阶段，技术突破和行业集中度提升仍有待关注，2026 年仍将处于深度调整期。再生资源回收利用行业在规模持续扩张的同 时，正经历结构升级与内部挑战并存的复杂局面，2026 年将加速转型。 2026 年 1 月 | 目录 | | --- | | 摘要 | 1 | | --- | --- | | 分析思路 | 2 | | 行业基本面 | 2 | | 行业财务表现 | 10 | | 结论 | 13 | | 附表 | 13 | 联络人 | 作者 | | --- | | 李转波 0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the issuance volume and scale of Asset - Backed Notes (ABN) increased year - on - year, with personal consumer finance and micro - loans being active. The issuance rate was low and declining, and the secondary market was active. Policy support promoted product innovation. In 2026, ABN will continue to play an important role in serving the real economy [5][59] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Issuance - In 2025, 610 ABN products were issued, with a total issuance scale of 571.836 billion yuan, a 9.07% increase from 2024. Among them, 184 Asset - Backed Commercial Paper (ABCP) products were issued, with a scale of 172.173 billion yuan, accounting for 30.11% of the ABN issuance scale. The issuance was mainly private placement [5][6] - By major underlying asset categories, debt - related products led with an issuance scale of 500.701 billion yuan, a 12.88% increase, and a scale share of 87.56%. Other categories had different trends [8] - By detailed underlying asset types, personal consumer finance and micro - loans were active, with 343 products issued and a scale of 307.277 billion yuan, accounting for 53.74% of all ABN products [11] - The top four sponsoring institutions were trust companies, with a combined issuance scale of 182.871 billion yuan, accounting for 31.98% of all ABN products. The market had a high concentration of sponsoring institutions [19] - The single - product highest issuance scale in 2025 was 8.72 billion yuan, and the lowest was 0.25 billion yuan. Products with a single - issuance scale in the (5, 10] billion yuan range had the largest number and scale share [21] - The shortest - term product was 0.17 years, and the longest was 23.41 years. Products with a term in the (1, 2] - year range had the largest issuance number and scale [24] - By rating level, AAAsf - rated notes accounted for 90.34% of the issuance scale [25] 3.2 ABCP Product Issuance - In 2025, 184 ABCP products were issued, with a scale of 172.173 billion yuan, a 5.53% year - on - year decrease, accounting for 30.11% of the ABN issuance scale. The detailed underlying asset types mainly included personal consumer finance, subsidy payments, accounts receivable, etc. [27] 3.3 Product Innovation - In 2025, multiple first - of - its - kind products were successfully issued, such as the first science - and - technology supply - chain bill ABN, the first science - and - technology innovation - type REITs in the inter - bank bond market, etc., providing experience for financing and asset revitalization [29] 3.4 Issuance Rate - In 2025, due to the stable and loose monetary policy, the ABN issuance rate remained low and continued to decline compared to the previous year. The spreads of 1 - year and 3 - year AAAsf - rated ABN products compared to Treasury bonds narrowed [30] 3.5 Secondary Market - As of the end of 2025, the ABN product stock scale was 653.621 billion yuan, a 4.31% year - on - year increase. The secondary - market trading volume was 539.205 billion yuan, a 13.15% year - on - year decrease; the number of transactions was 6,224, an 8.24% year - on - year increase, with an average transaction amount of 0.87 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 84.24%. The active underlying asset types in trading were personal consumer finance, class REITs, accounts receivable, and micro - loans [37] 3.6 Public Offering ABN Products - Accounts Receivable ABN: In 2025, 5 publicly - issued accounts receivable ABN products were issued, with a scale of 6.873 billion yuan, a 56.54% year - on - year decrease. All products had difference - making commitments or liquidity support [42] - Lease Receivables ABN: In 2025, 5 lease receivables ABN products were publicly issued, with a scale of 26.555 billion yuan, a 162.50% year - on - year increase. Some products had low default and early - repayment rates [46] - Supply - Chain ABN: In 2025, 22 publicly - issued supply - chain ABN products were issued, with a scale of 12.771 billion yuan, a 49.56% year - on - year increase. The core debtors/credit enhancers were large real - estate enterprises with high credit quality [50] 3.7 ABN Product Tracking - In 2025, the credit ratings of 3 outstanding public - offering ABN products were upgraded because the credit support for the mezzanine notes increased as the senior notes were redeemed [54] 3.8 Policy - In March 2025, the NAFMII issued the "Action Plan for Further Supporting the High - Quality Development of Private Enterprises in the Inter - bank Bond Market", promoting product innovation and optimizing the financing environment for private enterprises [57] - In May 2025, the NAFMII issued the "Notice on Launching Science and Technology Innovation Bonds and Building the 'Science and Technology Board' in the Bond Market", promoting the construction of the "science and technology board" in the bond market and guiding funds into the science and technology innovation field [58]

www.ccxi.com.cn 2026 年 1 月 | 目录 | | | --- | --- | | 摘要 | 1 | | 分析思路 | 2 | | 行业政策 | 2 | | 行业融资 | 3 | | 行业经营 | 7 | | 结论 | 13 | 联络人 作者 企业评级部 刘 洁 027-87339288 jliu01@ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 贺文俊 027-87339288 wjhe@ccxi.com.cn 余璐 027-87339288 lyu@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 行业展望 地方 AMC 行业 中国地方 AMC 行业展望：锚定主业控风险，经营承压弱 盈利，政府支持稳信用 预计 2026 年监管政策将持续引导 AMC 回归主责主业，服务中小金 融机构改革化险、地方平台转型与房地产纾困等重点领域，以发挥其 防范化解不良风险及服务实体经济的职能；基于当前不良资产业务 空间大，但市场竞争压力加剧、二级市场转让价格走低等因素，预计 不良资产处置难度将有所加大，2026 年地方 AMC 盈利能力将趋于 弱化，财务杠杆仍将维持在较高水平，地方政府增资将助力其资本实 力进一步提升；业务拓展过 ...

房地产行业 市场跟踪 10 月房地产市场量价承压，"十五五"指 引高质量发展路径——2025 年 11 月房地产 市场跟踪 作者: 中诚信国际 企业评级部 侯一甲 027-87339288 yjhou@ccxi.com.cn 杜志英 027-87339288 zhydu@ccxi.com.cn 新房交易规模仍在下探，"好房子"正成 为支撑市场的主力军——2025 年 10 月房地 产市场跟踪 中央纲领指引高质量发展，地方优化为 "金九银十"蓄力——2025年9月房地产市 场跟踪 其他联络人 贺文俊 027-87339288 wjhe @ccxi.com.cn 行业下行压力加大，中央经济工作会议定 调"着力稳定房地产市场" ——2025 年 12 月房地产市场跟踪 《住房租赁条例》正式出台，完善"租购 并举"制度保障——2025年8月房地产市场 跟踪 "十年再启新章"，从增量扩张到存量提 质，行业加快构建发展新模式——2025年 7 月房地产市场跟踪 专项债土地收储加速，行业延续止跌回稳 态势——2025年 6月房地产市场跟踪 "降准降息、公积金贷款利率下调"三箭 齐发，金融政策协调巩固行业企稳态势— —202 ...

专题研究 2026 年 1 月 宏观专题 于变局中开新局，寻求新均衡的 2026 ——2025 年宏观经济回顾与 2026 年展望 ◼ 2025 年复盘：多重变量交织下的"重构"之年 ◼ 经济走向"新均衡"仍存在四重制约 ➢ 当前中国经济正处于从旧模式向新均衡切换的关键时期，深层次的结构性矛 盾与周期性压力叠加，走向"新均衡"的路上仍面临四大制约。一是全球政治 经济格局加速重构，外部环境对国内的影响已远超贸易范畴；二是微观主体 的行为未走出"后疫情" 范式，可能在未来较长时期内抑制内需的弹性；三 是新旧动能转换带来下行压力和财政与就业缺口，新兴产业暂难完全补位； 四是高品质供给相对匮乏，供需结构性错位导致潜在内需难以释放。 ◼ 2026 年展望：预计经济增长 4.8%，宏微观温差或边际改善 ◼ 实现 2026 年经济增长目标的政策建议 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 院 长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 研 究 员 张 堃 kzhang02@ccxi.com.cn 研 究 员 张瀚文 hwzhang@ccxi.com.cn 经济"压力考"过半，政策针对性发力至 关重要——上半年经济数据点评，202 ...

Economic Performance - The economy achieved a growth target of 5% for 2025, with a GDP growth rate of 5.0% for the year, maintaining stability despite challenges[8] - Final consumption contributed over 52% to GDP growth, indicating effective policies to boost consumer spending[10] - Industrial production showed strong performance with an industrial added value growth rate of 5.9%, the highest in four years[10] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment experienced a historical decline of 3.8%, marking the first annual negative growth[12] - Infrastructure investment faced challenges, with a significant drop in new special bonds allocated for infrastructure projects, totaling only 2.66 trillion yuan compared to 3.14 trillion yuan the previous year[13] - Real estate investment fell to a record low of -17.2%, reflecting ongoing weaknesses in the sector[15] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales growth for 2025 was only 3.7%, with December showing a low of 0.9%, the lowest level outside of pandemic periods[10] - Service consumption remained resilient, growing at 5.5%, supported by travel and entertainment demand during peak seasons[10] - The consumer price index (CPI) remained stable, with inflation pressures under control, indicating a manageable economic environment[4] External Factors - Export growth remained robust, with December exports exceeding expectations despite high base effects from the previous year[5] - The trade surplus reached 118.89 billion USD in December, reflecting strong external demand[24] - The economic outlook for 2026 anticipates a growth rate of around 4.8%, supported by new projects and resilient external demand[22]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, influenced by the significant increase in NPL product issuance, the number and scale of credit - asset - backed securities issuances rebounded. The secondary - market trading volume also rebounded, with NPL products and sub - grade securities becoming the main trading components. The spreads of normal - class products continued to decline, while those of NPL products showed differentiation. Retail asset delinquency rates fluctuated at high levels, and the real recovery of NPL products continued to decline [6][7][55]. - In 2026, the credit asset securitization market is expected to be dominated by NPL products. The issuance spreads of other product types are expected to remain low, and the trading proportion of NPL and sub - grade securities in the secondary market is expected to further increase. Retail asset performance is unlikely to improve significantly in the short term, and the actual recovery of NPL products will continue to face pressure. Attention should be paid to the impact of consumer credit and industry policies [6][55]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Issuance - In 2025, a total of 238 credit - asset - backed securities were issued, with a total issuance scale of 291.522 billion yuan, representing a year - on - year increase of 23.96% in the number of issuances and 7.82% in scale. NPL products accounted for 74.79% of the issuance number and 28.15% of the scale, both reaching historical highs [6][7]. - Auto ABS: 32 issues were issued, with a total scale of 118.543 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.58% in scale. Green Auto ABS accounted for 17.62% of the total Auto ABS issuance scale, a decrease of 8.67 percentage points compared to 2024 [10]. - NPL: 178 issues were issued, with a total scale of 82.057 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 36.92% in the number of issuances and 61.32% in scale, and a cumulative disposal of 519.086 billion yuan in non - performing assets [10]. - Micro - enterprise loan ABS: 10 issues were issued, with a total scale of 58.645 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 23.08% in the number of issuances and 10.49% in scale [12]. - Personal consumption - loan ABS: 18 issues were issued, with a total scale of 32.277 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.88% in the number of issuances and 32.70% in scale [13]. 3.2 Issuance Interest Rate - In 2025, the issuance interest rate of normal - class asset credit ABS remained low, while the NPL product issuance interest rate deviated from the benchmark interest rate at the end of the year. The issuance interest rates of Auto ABS, personal consumption - loan ABS, and micro - enterprise loan ABS decreased in the first half of the year and then remained stable, while the NPL issuance interest rate increased significantly in the fourth quarter [17]. - The average spread of AAAsf - rated products and the benchmark interest rate was 56bp, and that of AA + sf - rated products was 48bp, a decrease of 2bp and 18bp respectively compared to 2024. The spreads of different types of products all declined to varying degrees, with NPL products still at a relatively high level [20]. 3.3 Secondary Market - By the end of 2025, the credit - asset - backed securities' outstanding scale decreased by 11.85% to 435.812 billion yuan. The trading volume increased by 4.38% to 130.514 billion yuan, the number of transactions increased by 27.90% to 2,388, and the turnover rate increased by 8.83 percentage points to 28.06% [23][25][26]. - NPL products were the main trading variety, with a trading volume of 53.206 billion yuan, accounting for 40.77% of the total trading volume. Auto ABS trading volume was 48.574 billion yuan, accounting for 37.22% of the total trading volume [28]. 3.4 Credit Performance - Auto ABS: The cumulative default rate of recently issued products increased significantly, the delinquency rate increased, and the prepayment rate showed a slow upward trend, with the fluctuation center between 8% - 10% [31][33][35]. - Personal consumption - loan ABS: The performance was significantly differentiated, the delinquency rate fluctuated, and the prepayment rate continued to rise [38][40][43]. - RMBS: The cumulative default rate remained low, the delinquency rate first increased and then decreased, and the prepayment rate fluctuated to a high level and then returned to stability [45][47][49]. - NPL: The real recovery situation declined year by year, and 11 issues of priority - class asset - backed securities failed to be fully redeemed by the expected maturity date [52].

Economic Insights - India's government plans to lift restrictions on Chinese companies participating in government contract bidding, potentially opening a market valued at $750 billion[9] - South Korea's economy shows signs of recovery for three consecutive months, with industrial production increasing by 0.9% and service sector production rising by 0.7% in November[13] - Australia's inflation rate in November was 3.4%, down from 3.8% in October, but still above the central bank's target of 2% to 3%[15] - Egypt's inflation rate stabilized at 12.3% in December, creating potential for further interest rate cuts in 2026[18] Investment and Growth Projections - The UAE's economy is projected to grow by 5% in 2026, outpacing major global economies, driven by diversification and non-oil sector development[20][21] - Turkey's minimum wage will increase by 27% to 28,075 lira (approximately $655) in 2026, although it remains below the poverty line[22][23] - Indonesia's fiscal deficit in 2026 may exceed the legal limit of 3%, reaching 3.5% of GDP due to increased welfare spending[25][26] Sovereign Credit Ratings - Fitch upgraded Benin's sovereign credit outlook to positive, maintaining a B+ rating, reflecting strong economic growth prospects and prudent fiscal policies[43][44] - Fitch also upgraded Armenia's sovereign credit outlook to positive, maintaining a BB- rating, supported by increased international reserves and stable growth[45]

作者: 中诚信国际 研究院 研究员 赵皓月 hyzhao@ccxi.com.cn 研究员 张 堃 kzhang02@ccxi.com.cn 院 长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 服装 2 20 02 2 6 6 年 年第 1 月 2 期 宏观经济 14 日 进出口数据点评 全年外贸韧性凸显、结构分化 ——2025 年 12 月进出口数据点评 事件：2025 年 12 月，我国进出口总额为 6014.2 亿美元，同比 增长 6.2%，其中，出口金额为 3577.8 亿美元，同比增长 6.6%； 进口金额为 2436.4 亿美元，同比增长 5.7%；贸易顺差为 1141.4 亿美元，同比增长 8.5%。2025 年全年，我国出口金额 同比增长 5.5%，进口金额同比增长 0%，进出口总额为 6.35 万 亿美元，创历史新高。 非美贸易支撑11 月出口增速转正，2025 年12 月8日 高基数叠加贸易摩擦增多，10月出口增速转负， 2025 年11月7日 中美贸易摩擦再生变数，四季度出口承压但影 响或有限，2025年10月13日 对美出口增速降幅扩大，"抢出口"效应显著 退坡，2025年9月8日 进 ...

专题研究 2026 年 1 月 城市更新系列研究（二） 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 鲁 璐 llu@ccxi.com.cn 汪苑晖 yhwang@ccxi.com.cn 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 【城市更新系列研究（一）】粗放改造到 精细运营：我国城市更新特点、业务模式 与存在问题探析，2026-1 中央城市工作会议强调存量提质增效，吉 林重启中小银行专项债发行，2025-07 城市更新"路线图"出台融资支持将加大， 吉林提出加快退出重点省份目标，2025-05 关注城市更新示范城市城投业务机会，四 川印发财税体制改革总体方案，2025-04 2025 年城市更新将有力有序有效推进， "99 号文"后宁夏首提"退重点省份"， 2025-01 如需订阅研究报告，敬请联系 中诚信国际品牌与投资人服务部 赵 耿 010-66428731； gzhao@ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn 城市更新投融资现状、空间及展望 主要观点 ◼ 当前我国城市更新领域投融资情况 1、投资现状：2021-2024 年我国共实施了 21.4 万个城市更新项目，主要集中在城镇老旧小区改造、 城中村 ...