金属行业周报：国内需求暂无起色，美国衰退预期放缓

Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Neutral [1] - Non-ferrous Metals: Positive [1] Core Views - The steel industry is experiencing a seasonal consumption lull, maintaining a weak supply-demand balance with a slight decrease in inventory. Short-term steel prices are expected to remain weak due to the transition between old and new national standards for rebar [1][3]. - Copper smelting fees remain low, with expectations of reduced production on the smelting side. Domestic demand is weak during the consumption off-season, but the pressure on copper prices is easing due to a slowdown in U.S. recession expectations. Short-term copper prices are anticipated to remain weak and volatile [1][3]. - The aluminum sector is seeing a recovery in supply due to the resumption of some alumina plants in Henan, but weak orders continue to suppress downstream operating rates, leading to a forecast of weak aluminum prices [2][3]. - Lithium prices are expected to remain weak as the demand for energy storage orders shows only a slight recovery, and lithium concentrate prices continue to decline [2][3]. Summary by Sections Steel - Current supply-demand conditions are weak, with a slight inventory decrease. As of August 9, the total steel inventory was 17.03 million tons, down 1.25% week-on-week [1][15]. - The production of five major steel varieties was 7.8351 million tons, down 7.17% week-on-week and down 15.72% year-on-year [15][17]. - The average profit margins for hot-rolled, cold-rolled, rebar, and medium-thick plates are negative, indicating ongoing challenges in profitability [26][28]. Copper - As of August 9, the copper smelting fee was $6.80 per ton, down 12.82% from the previous week [28]. - The LME copper spot price decreased by 1.92% to $8,800 per ton, while the domestic price fell by 2.57% to ¥71,600 per ton [28]. Aluminum - The LME aluminum spot price increased by 2.19% to $2,300 per ton, while the domestic price rose by 0.16% to ¥19,000 per ton [32]. - The operating rates of downstream aluminum processing companies continue to decline, leading to expectations of weak price performance [2][3]. Lithium - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 1.82% to ¥81,000 per ton, while battery-grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.45% to ¥77,100 per ton [39]. - The overall lithium price trend is expected to remain weak due to declining costs and insufficient demand support [37][39]. Rare Earths and Minor Metals - Prices for light rare earths, such as praseodymium-neodymium oxide, increased by 0.40% to ¥374,000 per ton, while heavy rare earths like dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide saw declines of 1.14% and 1.42%, respectively [48][49]. - Tungsten concentrate prices rose by 0.76% to ¥133,000 per ton, indicating a positive trend in minor metals [51].