Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - Short-term pig prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, suggesting a strategy of accumulating shares in leading pig farming companies during dips [5] - As of August 9, 2024, the average price for live pigs in China was 20.66 CNY/kg, reflecting a daily increase of 0.04 CNY/kg and an 18.33% increase compared to the same period last year [5] - Regional price variations show Guangdong, Fujian, and Hainan with the highest prices at 22-22.3 CNY/kg, while most other regions range from 20-20.9 CNY/kg [5] - Supply-side factors indicate a potential increase in pig availability due to recovering output rhythms from large-scale farms and a lack of confidence among farmers regarding future prices [5] - Demand-side pressures are noted as rising pork prices lead to increased costs for downstream buyers, with slaughterhouses exhibiting strong price suppression sentiments [5] - The report highlights the importance of seasonal consumption factors, such as cooler weather and increased demand during school season, which may support pig prices [5] - Recommended companies for investment include Muyuan Foods, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture, which are characterized by strong fundamentals and low valuations [5] Industry Data Tracking - As of August 9, 2024, the wholesale price index for agricultural products increased by 0.49% month-on-month and 5.18% year-on-year [14] - The pig inventory as of June 2024 showed a month-on-month increase of 1.70% but a year-on-year decrease of 4.60% [16] - The average price for broiler chickens was 7.77 CNY/kg, while chick prices were at 3.47 CNY/bird as of August 9, 2024 [20] - The report notes a decrease in feed prices, with pig feed dropping to 3.45 CNY/kg [24]
农林牧渔行业简评报告：短期猪价预计窄幅震荡，建议逢低布局生猪龙头
Capital Securities·2024-08-14 09:00