Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for China Lilang, primarily due to its attractive yield of 9% and valuation of 9x FY24E P/E, despite a cautious outlook for 2H24E [2][4]. Core Views - The company has revised down its FY24E retail sales growth target to 10% from 15%, reflecting macroeconomic uncertainties and company-specific challenges such as DTC transformation and increased operating expenses [2][6]. - Despite a robust new retail sales growth of 37% in 1H24E, the overall sales growth is expected to slow down due to a high base from the previous year and unclear momentum in retail sales [2][6]. - The partnership with Descente to develop the Munsingwear brand in China is seen as a positive move that could enhance growth in the golf wear segment [2][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 3,544 million in FY23A to RMB 3,845 million in FY24E, representing an 8.5% year-on-year growth [3][10]. - Net profit is expected to decrease slightly from RMB 530.4 million in FY23A to RMB 528.1 million in FY24E, indicating a 0.4% decline [3][10]. - The company’s operating profit is forecasted to increase from RMB 610.6 million in FY23A to RMB 634 million in FY24E, reflecting a 3.9% growth [3][10]. Earnings Revision - FY24E net profit estimates have been revised down by 16% to RMB 528 million, primarily due to slower-than-expected sales growth and increased operating expenses [7][8]. - The gross profit margin is expected to decline to 46.7% in FY24E from 48.2% in FY23A, reflecting the impact of DTC transformation and a shift in sales mix [7][8]. Market Performance - The current market capitalization of China Lilang is approximately HK 4.85, indicating an upside potential of 18.6% from the current price of HK$ 4.09 [4][12]. - The stock has experienced a decline of 13.9% over the past three months, reflecting broader market challenges [4][12]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to open its first store in Malaysia as part of its overseas expansion strategy, leveraging its leadership in menswear and value-for-money products [6][12]. - The multi-brand strategy has been launched, with a focus on enhancing product and brand upgrades, which is expected to support long-term growth [2][6].
中国利郎：Guidance cut amid uncertainties in 2H24E