Ganyuan Foods（002991）：Revenue Growth Slowed in 2Q24， 3Y Dividend Plan Announced

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ganyuan Foods is maintained as BUY with a target price of RMB 69.36, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the closing price of RMB 54.90 as of August 7, 2024 [8][9]. Core Insights - Ganyuan Foods experienced a quarter-on-quarter slowdown in revenue growth in 2Q24 due to off-season effects and personnel adjustments within the distribution team. However, year-on-year growth remains strong with revenue, attributable net profit, and recurring net profit for 1H24 increasing by 26.1%, 39.3%, and 40.0% respectively [3][4]. - The company’s gross profit margin (GPM) declined by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year in 2Q24, attributed to structural changes in product sales channels and weakening economies of scale. Despite this, the company expects to increase its payout ratio, enhancing shareholder returns [5][6]. - Ganyuan Foods' classic products, including green peas, melon seeds, and flavored nuts, showed robust revenue growth, with significant contributions from membership supermarkets and bulk sales channels [4][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For 1H24, Ganyuan Foods reported revenues of RMB 1,040 million, with a net profit of RMB 170 million. In 2Q24, revenues were RMB 460 million, reflecting a 4.9% year-on-year increase [3][4]. - The company’s revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: RMB 2,254 million for 2024, RMB 2,714 million for 2025, and RMB 3,193 million for 2026, with corresponding net profits of RMB 380.61 million, RMB 468.71 million, and RMB 551.05 million [7][9]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 4.08, RMB 5.03, and RMB 5.91 respectively, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio projected at 17x for 2024 [6][7].