KINGKEY SMART AGRI(SZ:000048) Huaxin Securities·2024-08-15 01:39Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [6] Core Views - The pig farming business has emerged as the main driver of profit growth, leading to an overall increase in profits [2][4] - The company is expected to benefit from a favorable pig price environment in the second half of 2024, which will further enhance profitability [2][3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 200 million and 260 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 79.76% to 84.43% [2] - The second quarter of 2024 saw a significant turnaround with a net profit of 146 million to 206 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 124.69% to 217.10% [2] Pig Farming Business - The total cost of pig farming in the first half of 2024 was 14.84 yuan/kg, down by 1.88 yuan/kg from the second half of 2023 [3] - The average pig price rose to 18.30 yuan/kg by June 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27.79% [3] - The pig farming business achieved a cumulative output of 1.0459 million pigs in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.04%, with sales revenue of 1.689 billion yuan, up 38.41% [4] Real Estate Business - The real estate business's revenue contribution has decreased to 20-25%, with a significant drop in delivery quantities compared to the previous year [5] - The company is focusing on accelerating cash flow through the sale of existing projects [5] Profit Forecast - The company is projected to generate revenues of 11.041 billion, 12.908 billion, and 13.385 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.89, 2.27, and 2.10 yuan [6] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 7.7, 6.4, and 6.9 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6]