2024年7月金融数据解读：人民币贷款拖累7月社融

Financing Data Overview - In July 2024, the new social financing (社融) scale was approximately CNY 0.77 trillion, lower than the market expectation of CNY 1.02 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of about CNY 234.3 billion[1] - The new RMB loans in July amounted to CNY 260 billion, below the expected CNY 456.1 billion, and a decrease of CNY 85.9 billion year-on-year[1] - The M1 and M2 money supply growth rates in July were -6.6% and 6.3% respectively, reflecting a decline of 1.6 percentage points for M1 and a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points for M2 compared to previous values[1] Loan Structure Analysis - The new RMB loans under the social financing framework showed a negative growth of CNY 767 billion, marking the first negative figure since August 2005, significantly lower than the five-year average of CNY 623 billion[6] - The new off-balance-sheet financing in July was -CNY 755 billion, a decrease of CNY 970 billion year-on-year, with bills contributing a reduction of CNY 888 billion[6] - In July, corporate bond financing reached CNY 202.8 billion, an increase of CNY 73.8 billion year-on-year, while government bond financing was CNY 691.1 billion, up CNY 280.2 billion from the previous year[6] Economic Indicators - The year-on-year growth of social financing stock was 8.2%, a slight recovery of 0.1 percentage points from the previous value[6] - The M2 growth rate's slight recovery is attributed to a low base from the previous year and accelerated fiscal spending, while M1's decline indicates weak corporate expectations and economic momentum[10] - The M2-M1 gap widened by 1.7 percentage points to 12.9%, indicating insufficient liquidity in the economy and a need for stronger economic foundations[10]