Poland： July Inflation Print Confirmed； Jump Caused by Rise in Energy Prices

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the Polish inflation outlook but indicates a more dovish long-term outlook compared to the National Bank of Poland (NBP) [3]. Core Insights - The final July inflation estimate confirmed a rise from +2.6% year-on-year (yoy) in June to +4.2% yoy in July, primarily driven by higher utility inflation, which increased from -1.6% yoy in June to +10.1% yoy in July due to the partial expiry of energy price shields [2][4]. - Food inflation also rose for the third consecutive month, from +2.5% yoy to +3.2% yoy in July, while core inflation slightly increased from +3.6% yoy to +3.8% yoy [2][4]. - The report forecasts lower-than-expected Polish inflation in the medium term, attributing this to external factors, the recent appreciation of the zloty, and favorable food prices [3]. Summary by Sections Inflation Overview - July inflation rose to +4.2% yoy from +2.6% yoy in June, with a month-on-month (mom) increase of 26.2% (seasonally adjusted, annualized) [2][4]. - Core inflation increased to +3.8% yoy in July from +3.6% yoy in June, with a mom increase of 6.6% (seasonally adjusted, annualized) [4]. Key Figures - Utility inflation surged to +10.1% yoy in July from -1.6% yoy in June, while food inflation rose to +3.2% yoy from +2.5% yoy [4]. - The report highlights significant changes in various inflation components, including a dramatic increase in electricity, gas, and other fuels, which saw a yoy increase of +10.1% [4]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term outlook remains dovish, with expectations of a temporary rebound in inflation due to the expiry of energy price caps, but overall disinflation is anticipated in the second half of 2024 [3][7].