CHINA COAL ENERGY(601898) 海通证券·2024-08-15 06:38Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1][5]. Core Views - The company demonstrates a balance of stability and growth, with potential for both marginal and long-term gains [1]. - The company has shown steady revenue and net profit growth since 2016, with 2023 revenue and net profit reaching 193 billion and 195 billion respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -12.5% and +7.1% [6][10]. - The company is positioned as a major player in the coal industry, with significant coal reserves and production capacity, and is actively expanding its coal chemical and equipment manufacturing businesses [6][19]. Company Overview - The company is a large state-owned enterprise engaged in coal production, trade, coal chemical, equipment manufacturing, and related services [6]. - The controlling shareholder is the China Coal Energy Group, which holds a 57.37% stake [8]. - The company has a coal production capacity of 2.78 billion tons per year and produced 243 million tons of coal in 2023, with a capacity utilization rate of 87.4% [8][10]. Coal Business - The company has abundant coal resources, with a total coal resource of 26.648 billion tons and a recoverable reserve of 1.3871 billion tons [13]. - In 2023, the company produced 134 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 12.6% [15]. - The average selling price of self-produced coal in 2023 was approximately 600 yuan per ton, with a production cost of 307 yuan per ton, indicating a cost advantage [17]. Coal Chemical and Other Businesses - The coal chemical segment has a production capacity of 5.13 million tons per year, with a total output of 603.6 million tons in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [19][21]. - The company has never reported a loss in its coal chemical segment, with cumulative revenue of 153.6 billion and gross profit of 30.7 billion since 2015 [21]. - The equipment manufacturing segment is a leading player in the domestic market, achieving a production value of 11.4 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [23]. Company Highlights - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) emphasizes return on equity (ROE) and quality of earnings, promoting market value management assessments [4][25]. - The company has initiated a special dividend of 1.5 billion yuan, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [4][27]. - The company has significant potential for organic growth in coal production, with expected increases in output in the coming years [4][29]. Profit Forecast and Cash Flow - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 19.1 billion, 20.7 billion, and 21.3 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, with corresponding EPS of 1.44, 1.56, and 1.60 yuan [5][39]. - Despite cash flow pressures from capital expenditures, the company is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of around 50% [37].