中原证券：晨会聚焦-20240815

Core Insights - The report indicates that the overall economic growth in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is expected to exceed 5% in 2024, driven by a gradual recovery in external demand and strengthening economic momentum in Hong Kong and Macau [4][6] - The report highlights significant growth in the new energy vehicle market, with retail sales of 274,000 units from August 1 to 11, representing a year-on-year increase of 57% and a month-on-month increase of 25% [4][6] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a new upward cycle, driven by strong demand in the generative AI sector, with global semiconductor sales continuing to grow year-on-year [15] Market Analysis - The A-share market is currently experiencing fluctuations, with the communication and military industries leading slight gains, while the banking and pharmaceutical sectors are showing narrow fluctuations [7][8] - The report notes that the average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are at 12.26 times and 26.45 times, respectively, indicating that the market is still in a relatively low valuation zone suitable for medium to long-term investments [6][8] - The report suggests that investors should focus on short-term opportunities in sectors such as communication equipment, consumer electronics, software development, and gaming [6][8] Industry Reports - The chemical industry is facing a downturn, with the index dropping 3.36% in July, attributed to the ongoing decline in chemical product prices due to factors like the Federal Reserve's rate hikes and a decrease in global demand [13] - The cultural industry is expected to benefit from recent policy support, which aims to stimulate domestic cultural consumption, particularly in areas like film, television, and gaming [13] - The report emphasizes the importance of the lithium battery sector, which has seen a decline of 2.91%, suggesting a cautious approach to investment opportunities in this area [8][9] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as pharmaceuticals, particularly in vitamin and artificial bone repair materials, as well as the cultural and entertainment sectors due to favorable policy changes [8][9] - In the semiconductor industry, the report advises monitoring the domestic market's performance and the potential impacts of export controls, while also highlighting the importance of domestic substitution strategies [15] - The report suggests that investors should pay attention to the food and beverage sector, particularly in health products and soft drinks, as these areas show potential for growth despite recent declines [14]