Toly Bread(SH:603866) Southwest Securities·2024-08-16 03:28Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company [1][2]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.02 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 5.8%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 290 million yuan, down 0.6% year-on-year. In Q2 2024, revenue was 1.62 billion yuan, a decline of 6.3%, but net profit increased by 14.2% year-on-year to 170 million yuan [1]. - The revenue from bread products in the first half of 2024 was 2.99 billion yuan, down 5.4% year-on-year, although new products showed strong growth [1]. - The company plans to further explore market potential in North and Northeast China while actively expanding in Southwest and Xinjiang markets [1]. - The gross margin improved to 24.2% in the first half of 2024, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 gross margin at 25.1%, an increase of 2 percentage points [1]. - The company has established production bases in 22 regions across the country, with a total capacity of 237,000 tons as of the end of H1 2024, and is expanding capacity with new bases under construction [1]. Financial Summary - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 600 million yuan, 660 million yuan, and 740 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.37 yuan, 0.42 yuan, and 0.46 yuan, leading to dynamic PE ratios of 15x, 14x, and 13x [2][3]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow at rates of 2.36% in 2024, 6.56% in 2025, and 6.13% in 2026 [3]. - The net profit margin is projected to improve gradually, with a net profit margin of 9.6% in the first half of 2024, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [1].