PAB(SZ:000001) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-08-16 05:07Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Bank is "Accumulate" with a target price of 12.60, unchanged from the previous rating [4]. Core Views - Ping An Bank has undergone strategic upgrades and business transformations over the past year, nearing the end of its transitional pain period. The bank's performance is expected to improve in the second half of the year due to solid foundations and refined operations [9]. - The bank has shown positive signals in Q2 2024, including significant growth in retail demand deposits and marginal improvement in non-performing loan generation rates. The low base from H2 2023 is expected to contribute to better performance [9]. - A cash dividend plan has been announced, proposing a 20% distribution of the net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders for H1 2024, reflecting confidence in future development [9]. Financial Summary - For 2022A, the operating income was 179,895 million, with a projected decline to 149,896 million in 2024E, followed by a gradual recovery [8]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 46,455 million in 2023A to 54,837 million by 2026E, with growth rates of 2.1%, 3.9%, 5.3%, and 7.9% for the respective years [8]. - The bank's total assets are projected to increase from 5,587,116 million in 2023A to 6,598,866 million by 2026E, indicating a steady growth trajectory [10]. Asset Quality and Performance - The non-performing loan ratio is expected to remain stable at 1.07% in 2024E, with a slight improvement to 1.05% by 2026E [10]. - The bank's capital adequacy ratio is projected to improve from 13.4% in 2023A to 14.4% in 2026E, indicating a strengthening capital position [10]. - The net interest margin is expected to decline slightly to 1.83% in 2024E, reflecting challenges in credit demand [10].