BOCOM International·2024-08-16 05:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba (BABA US) with a target price of $111 or HKD 107 [1][21]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of GMV growth certainty in the upcoming quarter, driven by improved monetization strategies and stable market share [1][8]. - The company is expected to see continuous optimization in profit performance across various business segments over the next 1-2 years [1]. Financial Overview - Revenue for FY2023 was RMB 868,687 million, with a projected increase to RMB 941,168 million in FY2024, reflecting an 8.3% year-on-year growth [3]. - Net profit for FY2023 was RMB 141,379 million, expected to rise to RMB 157,479 million in FY2024, indicating a 12.2% growth [3]. - The adjusted EBITA for the first quarter of FY2025 is projected to be RMB 48.8 billion, with a profit margin of 43% [25]. Business Segment Performance - Taobao's GMV experienced a high single-digit growth year-on-year, with a 1% increase in CMR, although this was partially offset by a decline in monetization rates due to the rise of lower-commercialization new business models [4][8]. - International business revenue grew by 32% year-on-year, driven by the performance of AliExpress and key market expansions, despite an increase in losses due to higher investments in cross-border business [4][9]. - Cloud revenue increased by 6% year-on-year, supported by strong growth in public cloud and AI-related products, with paid users of Alibaba Cloud's AI platform increasing by over 200% quarter-on-quarter [4][26]. - Local services revenue grew by 12%, benefiting from increased orders on Ele.me and Gaode, with significant improvements in loss margins [4][27]. - Cainiao's revenue rose by 16%, primarily due to increased investment in cross-border logistics fulfillment services [10][28].