2024年7月宏观数据跟踪和分析

Economic Performance - July macroeconomic data remains weak, with overall recovery momentum needing strengthening[2] - Manufacturing PMI for July is at 49.4%, indicating three consecutive months below the critical line[3] - CPI in July shows a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, up from 0.2% in June, but the recovery strength is still weak[5] Trade and Investment - July exports grew by 7% year-on-year, below the expected 9.5%, while imports increased by 7.2%[8] - Fixed asset investment from January to July reached 287,611 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6%[13] Financial Data - Social financing scale increased by 18.87 trillion yuan in the first seven months, down 3.22 trillion yuan from the previous year[9] - M1 decreased by 6.6% year-on-year, indicating weak consumer and business confidence[10] Real Estate Sector - Real estate development investment from January to July was 60,877 billion yuan, down 10.2% year-on-year[13] - New housing sales area decreased by 19% in the first half of the year, but the decline is expected to narrow due to lower year-on-year bases[14][17]