“去年轻化”是吉利对抗比亚迪的关键；吉利汽车洞察报告(2024版)

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The core viewpoint of the report is that Geely Auto's current product strategy, heavily focused on compact fuel vehicles targeting the youth market, is becoming increasingly unsustainable due to the shrinking youth car market and the rise of middle-aged and elderly car markets [4][5][6] - Geely's "youth-oriented" strategy, which was successful from 2014-2018, has lost its effectiveness as the 90s generation, the new main car-buying demographic, has significantly reduced in size, leading to a decline in the market share of compact cars from nearly 60% to 47.54% by 2023 [4] - Geely's delayed response to the new energy vehicle (NEV) trend, compared to BYD's aggressive NEV strategy, has put Geely at a competitive disadvantage [4][5] Product Layout Analysis Youth Market - Geely's product lineup is still heavily concentrated in the shrinking compact fuel vehicle market, which primarily targets young consumers [4][5] - The youth car market has seen a sharp decline, with terminal sales dropping below 8 million units and market share falling to 36.55% by 2023 [7] - The youth market is expected to continue shrinking, with its market share potentially dropping to 25% by 2030, losing its dominant position [7] - Geely's youth-focused products, such as the Emgrand and Boyue, are increasingly at risk as the youth market trends towards feminization, single-person households, and urbanization [7] Middle-Aged Market - The middle-aged car market has become the new mainstream, with terminal sales exceeding 10 million units and market share surpassing 50% by 2023 [9] - Geely has not fully capitalized on the middle-aged market, with only a few models like the Xingyue L and Zeekr 001 benefiting from this trend [9] - BYD has been more successful in capturing the middle-aged market with models like the Qin PLUS and Song PLUS, which appeal to both middle-aged men and women [9] - Geely plans to launch new energy-efficient large vehicles, such as the Xingjian, to compete in the middle-aged market [9] Elderly Market - The elderly car market is emerging as a new growth opportunity, with terminal sales increasing from 550,000 units in 2014 to 2.27 million units in 2023 [11] - The elderly market is expected to continue growing, with market share potentially exceeding 20% by 2030 [11] - Geely has not yet developed a strategic focus on the elderly market, which presents a significant opportunity for future growth [11] Strategic Recommendations - Geely should accelerate its shift away from the youth market and focus on the middle-aged and elderly markets [18] - The company should optimize its product lineup to better cater to the middle-aged market, particularly by developing energy-efficient large vehicles and enhancing its presence in the commercial/ business vehicle segment [15][17] - Geely should also begin exploring the elderly market, particularly by developing vehicles suited for long-distance travel and urban commuting [15][18] - The report suggests that Geely should leverage its brands (Geely, Lynk & Co, and Zeekr) to target different segments: Lynk & Co for the youth market, Geely for the middle-aged market, and Zeekr for the premium and female markets [15][18] Competitive Landscape - BYD has gained a significant competitive advantage over Geely by aggressively pursuing the NEV market and effectively targeting the middle-aged market with models like the Qin PLUS and Song PLUS [5][9] - BYD's upcoming product launches, such as the Tang L and Tang MAX, are expected to further strengthen its position in the middle-aged market [9][17] - Geely's delayed response to the NEV trend and its continued focus on the shrinking youth market have left it vulnerable to BYD's dominance [4][5][17]