JINGXIN(002020) 德邦证券·2024-08-16 08:32Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported robust performance in H1 2024, with revenue reaching 2.15 billion yuan (+11.02% YoY) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 402 million yuan (+27.28% YoY) [1] - The finished drug business showed strong growth, with revenue increasing by 17.13% YoY to 1.301 billion yuan, driven by sales system upgrades [1] - The company's marketing reform has begun to show results, with rapid growth in out-of-hospital market revenue, which increased by over 80% YoY in H1 2024 [2] - The company's first Class 1 new drug, Jinonning® (Didaxinib Capsules), officially entered the market in March 2024, marking a new stage of "innovation and imitation combination" for the company [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 722 million yuan, 822 million yuan, and 941 million yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE valuations of 13.6x, 12.0x, and 10.5x [2] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company's revenue from finished drugs was 1.301 billion yuan (+17.13% YoY), while revenue from APIs was 501 million yuan (+5.66% YoY), and revenue from medical devices was 312 million yuan (+0.46% YoY) [1] - The company's sales expenses decreased by 3.63% YoY in H1 2024, with a sales expense ratio of 17.85% (-2.72 percentage points) [2] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 50.6% in 2023 to 53.5% in 2026, with net profit margins increasing from 15.6% to 16.7% over the same period [4] - The company's ROE is projected to rise from 11.2% in 2023 to 13.0% in 2026, reflecting improved profitability [4] Business Development - The company has shifted its marketing model from a "line-based" system to a hospital and retail division model, focusing on deepening hospital market penetration and expanding the out-of-hospital market [2] - The company has established strategic partnerships with multiple chain pharmacies, accelerating the layout of its retail business [2] - The company's R&D pipeline is progressing steadily, with several projects in clinical trials, including JX11502MA Capsules and Kangfuxin Enteric-coated Capsules II [2] Valuation and Forecast - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 3.999 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.688 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 12.4% [4] - The company's net profit is forecasted to increase from 619 million yuan in 2023 to 941 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 14.9% [4] - The company's EPS is projected to rise from 0.72 yuan in 2023 to 1.09 yuan in 2026, with a P/E ratio decreasing from 17.67x to 10.5x over the same period [4]