健民集团：上半年渠道调整业绩承压，下半年有望向好

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [12]. Core Insights - The company experienced a revenue decline of 7.02% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with total revenue of 2.01 billion and a net profit of 239 million, down 5.16% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to adjustments in the marketing system and increased costs [1]. - The company is focusing on key product lines and has seen growth in specific products, such as the Dragon and Tiger Bone Granules and the Jianmin Dapeng product line, which contributed significantly to profits [1]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been adjusted downwards, with expected revenues of 4.74 billion, 5.45 billion, and 6.32 billion respectively, reflecting growth rates of 13%, 15%, and 16% [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 4.213 billion with a net profit of 521 million, showing a growth rate of 28% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is reported at 3.40, with a projected increase to 3.82 in 2024 and 5.40 by 2026 [2][10]. - The company's operating income is expected to grow at a rate of 12.6% in 2024, with a net profit growth rate of 12.4% [10]. Business Segment Analysis - The pharmaceutical commercial segment reported a slight revenue increase to 1.093 billion, while the pharmaceutical industrial segment saw a significant decline of 19.40% to 906 million [1]. - The company is enhancing its product offerings and market strategies, particularly in the OTC and Rx product lines, which are expected to drive future growth [1]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing sales models and enhancing channel management to reduce inventory and improve sales efficiency [1]. - The demand for the company's unique products, such as the cultivated cow bile, remains strong, contributing positively to profit margins [1].