BABA(09988) 国泰君安·2024-08-17 04:36Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to Alibaba-SW (9988) [3] Core Insights - The report highlights that multiple business segments have exceeded expectations in reducing losses, with steady progress in the inclusion of Hong Kong Stock Connect, which is expected to improve liquidity and catalyze stock price [4][51] - The monetization rate for Taobao and Tmall is anticipated to reach a turning point due to new service fee policies and overall site improvements [4][51] Financial Overview - Revenue for the quarter was slightly below expectations at RMB 243.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4%, while adjusted net profit was RMB 40.7 billion, down 9% year-on-year [9][10] - The adjusted EBITA for Taobao and Tmall Group was RMB 48.81 billion, slightly above expectations [10] - The report projects slight adjustments to revenue forecasts for FY2025E-FY2027E, estimating revenues of RMB 1,039.2 billion, RMB 1,138.9 billion, and RMB 1,227.2 billion respectively [10][30] Business Segment Performance - Taobao and Tmall Group's revenue decreased by 1% year-on-year to RMB 113.4 billion, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 43% [17] - International commerce revenue grew by 32.4% year-on-year, with Lazada achieving monthly EBITA profitability [44] - The Cloud Intelligence segment saw a revenue increase of 6% year-on-year to RMB 26.55 billion, driven by AI-related product growth [48] - The Local Services segment reported a 12% year-on-year revenue increase to RMB 16.2 billion, with a significant reduction in losses [20] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a target price of HKD 101 for Alibaba's stock for FY2025, reiterating the "Accumulate" rating [10][30] - The report emphasizes the expected improvement in shareholder returns and the steady progress in the inclusion of Hong Kong Stock Connect [10][51]