沪农商行2024年中报点评：中期分红率提升至33%

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 is at an annual low, with stable non-performing loans and an increase in dividend payout [1][2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2024 increased by 0.6% year-on-year, while revenue grew by 0.2%, indicating a slowdown compared to Q1 2024 [2] - The non-performing loan ratio at the end of Q2 2024 was 0.97%, a decrease of 3 basis points from Q1 2024, with a provision coverage ratio of 372%, down 9 percentage points [3][4] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In H1 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 12,142 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.6% and a revenue of 26,414 million yuan, reflecting a 0.2% increase [9][12] - The earnings growth was primarily driven by a decrease in impairment losses, which fell by 31% year-on-year in H1 2024, contrasting with a 72% increase in Q1 2024 [2] Interest Margin Stability - The interest margin for Q2 2024 was slightly down by 1 basis point to 1.47%, supported by improved funding costs that offset the decline in asset yields [2] - The asset yield decreased by 8 basis points to 3.24%, while the cost of liabilities dropped by 7 basis points to 1.92% [2] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio and attention loan ratio decreased to 0.97% and 1.23%, respectively, at the end of Q2 2024, with a slight increase in overdue loans [3] - The provision coverage ratio was reported at 372%, indicating a strong buffer against potential loan losses [3] Dividend Policy - The interim dividend payout ratio for 2024 was set at 33%, an increase of 3 percentage points from 2023, reflecting the company's strong capital position [4] - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio rose by 19 basis points to 14.68% at the end of Q2 2024, indicating a robust capital base [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve a net profit growth of 2.6%, 5.5%, and 6.2% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a target price of 8.19 yuan per share, representing a 25% upside from the current price [4][9]