KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-08-17 14:36Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that the company's e-commerce segment is stabilizing, with non-e-commerce businesses showing continuous improvement. The focus on enhancing shareholder returns is emphasized, alongside a forecasted recovery in domestic e-commerce market share and international e-commerce growth [4][11] - The adjusted net profit forecast for FY2025 has been lowered to 151.5 billion yuan from a previous estimate of 154.8 billion yuan, while maintaining forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 at 170.7 billion yuan and 189.1 billion yuan respectively. This corresponds to year-on-year growth rates of -3.8%, 12.7%, and 10.8% [4][12] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2023, the company reported a revenue of 941.16 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%. The revenue for FY2024 is projected at 868.69 billion yuan, reflecting a modest growth of 1.8%. The forecast for FY2025 is 1,018.69 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 8.2% [12] - The non-GAAP net profit for FY2023 was 141.38 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.4%. For FY2024, the net profit is expected to be 157.48 billion yuan, a growth of 3.7%. However, for FY2025, a decline to 151.49 billion yuan is anticipated, representing a decrease of 3.8% [12] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 36.7% in FY2023 to 38.9% by FY2027, while the net margin is projected to stabilize around 16% [12] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the domestic e-commerce market share is expected to stabilize, with a potential recovery in monetization rates driving profitability. The international e-commerce segment is anticipated to maintain rapid growth, and Alibaba Cloud is expected to return to double-digit year-on-year growth in the second half of 2024 [4][11][20] - The company has initiated a share buyback program valued at 5.8 billion USD, resulting in a 2.3% reduction in the number of ordinary shares [20]