Workflow
房地产行业数据点评:7月销售转弱,投资延续低迷
Xiangcai Securities·2024-08-18 02:37

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2][6][18] Core Insights - In the first seven months of 2024, the sales area and amount of commercial housing showed a narrowing year-on-year decline, but the decline in July expanded [3][8] - The total sales area of commercial housing from January to July was 541 million square meters, down 18.6% year-on-year, while the sales amount decreased by 24.3% [3][8] - In July alone, the sales area was 62 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 15.4%, marking the lowest level for the same period since 2014 [3][8] - The decline in sales amount in July was 18.5%, indicating a greater drop in housing prices compared to the sales area [3][8] Sales Performance - The sales area and amount for residential properties in the first seven months were 454 million square meters and a decline of 21.1% year-on-year, respectively [3][8] - The cumulative decline in sales has narrowed for three consecutive months, indicating a potential base effect in the second half of the year [3][8] Funding Situation - The total funds received by real estate companies from January to July decreased by 21.3% year-on-year, with improvements in the declines of deposits, prepayments, and domestic loans [4][12] - In July, the year-on-year decline in funds received was 11.8%, showing a significant improvement compared to previous months [4][12] Investment Trends - Real estate development investment from January to July decreased by 10.2% year-on-year, with new construction area down 23.2% [5][14] - The land market continues to show weak supply and demand, with residential land supply and transaction area down 38% and 34% year-on-year, respectively [5][16] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality real estate companies with strong financing capabilities, land acquisition abilities, and reasonable land reserve layouts, maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the industry [6][18]