医药生物行业：医改深水区的政策与策略思考：医改紧锣密鼓，博弈增速变难，医药板块路在何方

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating, but it emphasizes the importance of aligning investment strategies with the ongoing healthcare reform (Sanming Model) and understanding the evolving dynamics of the pharmaceutical sector [2][3][5] Core Views - The Sanming healthcare reform model is expected to have a profound impact on the pharmaceutical industry, reshaping underlying industry logic and creating structural opportunities [5][9] - The correlation between earnings growth and stock price performance in the pharmaceutical sector is weakening, making pure growth-based strategies less effective [3][59] - The aging population presents both opportunities and challenges for the pharmaceutical industry, with the key determinant being the willingness and ability to pay for healthcare services [69][72][74] Policy Perspective - The Sanming Model has been frequently mentioned in national-level policies since 2024, indicating its growing influence on the healthcare reform trajectory [5][6] - Key reforms under the Sanming Model include the elimination of drug markups, DRG/DIP payment systems, centralized drug procurement, and the promotion of traditional Chinese medicine [9][10] - The reform has introduced innovative salary systems for hospital directors and doctors, decoupling their income from hospital profits and aligning incentives with policy goals [14][15] Strategic Perspective - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a shift from short-term growth strategies to long-term growth strategies, as high-growth companies become increasingly scarce [57][65] - The aging population is a critical factor influencing the future growth of the pharmaceutical industry, with the need to understand the nuances of different elderly demographics [69][72] - Companies that can establish competitive advantages across categories, within categories, or through superior operational efficiency are more likely to achieve sustained growth [81][82] Financial and Market Trends - The pharmaceutical sector has seen significant internal divergence in performance, with income and profit growth rates becoming more varied across companies [54][55] - The number of companies achieving high growth rates (e.g., ≥50% income growth) has decreased, making it more challenging to identify growth stocks [57][58] - The correlation between short-term stock price movements and quarterly earnings growth has weakened, further complicating growth-based investment strategies [62][63] Drug Economics and National Negotiations - Drug economics research is increasingly aligned with clinical needs, with a focus on high-incidence diseases such as cancer, circulatory system disorders, and respiratory diseases [27] - National drug price negotiations can significantly alter the economic advantages of innovative drugs, making early inclusion in the national reimbursement drug list a strategic priority [33][35] - The implementation of separate payment policies for innovative drugs varies across provinces, affecting their accessibility and economic viability [40][42]