宏观周观点：海外关注日本政治格局变化的长远影响，国内需求待提振

Group 1: Japan's Political Landscape and Economic Policy - Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will not participate in the September LDP presidential election, indicating potential shifts in economic policy direction[3] - Kishida's administration has maintained an expansionary fiscal policy since taking office in October 2021, with a current approval rating of 25%[12] - The likelihood of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan in the short term is low, but medium to long-term changes in policy may occur, potentially strengthening the yen[3] Group 2: Domestic Economic Conditions - July economic data shows a "supply better than demand" scenario, with retail sales growth at 2.7%, below the expected 3.1%[13] - Fixed asset investment growth continues to slow, with manufacturing at 9.3% and real estate down by 10.2%[13] - New special bond issuance progress is less than 50%, suggesting potential acceleration in funding disbursement in Q3[13] Group 3: Financial Data and Market Trends - In July, net decrease in RMB loans under social financing indicates insufficient real financing demand, with a reduction of 767 billion RMB[17] - The probability of a 25bps rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has increased, while the overall expectation for a rate cut remains at 100%[3] - The A-share market has returned to domestic fundamental pricing, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.6% this week[21]