策略周刊：美国大选格局变化对市场影响如何？

Group 1: Impact of US Election Changes on the Market - The recent fluctuations in overseas markets are attributed to lower-than-expected risks, while the upcoming US election introduces significant mid-term risks for the US economy [1][7] - The selection of Minnesota Governor Walz as the vice-presidential candidate is unexpected and may lead to greater uncertainty in the election and long-term political stability in the US [1][7] - The polarization within the US is expected to increase, leading to greater global economic and political instability, as both major parties abandon moderate voters [1][7] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Performance - Recent US economic data, including a July CPI increase of 2.9% year-on-year and a core CPI increase of 3.2%, has alleviated concerns about a "hard landing" for the US economy [1][7] - The Nasdaq index has seen consecutive increases, reflecting improved market sentiment following the release of positive economic indicators [1][7] - Domestic market impacts from overseas volatility are limited, with expectations of improved sentiment from northbound capital as liquidity crises are resolved [1][7] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a cautious investment strategy, focusing on sectors such as utilities, non-ferrous metals, core military industry, and state-owned enterprises in the upper and middle reaches [3][9] - The continuation of domestic consumption and real estate policies is expected to support market stability in the second half of the year [3][9] Group 4: Weekly Market Review and Outlook - Major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.60% while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index fell by 0.52% and 0.26%, respectively [11][15] - The banking, communication, and coal sectors led the market, while the turnover rates for consumer services and defense industries showed a noticeable decline [11][15]