7月电商月报：大盘回暖，主要平台3季度增速恢复

Industry Rating - The report assigns a "Leading" investment rating to the internet industry, indicating an attractive outlook compared to the benchmark index over the next 12 months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the overall market, with a projected 8% year-on-year growth in e-commerce gross merchandise volume (GMV) for the third quarter, driven by increased consumer frequency and supply chain expansion [2][8]. - Major platforms are expected to see a recovery in growth rates in the third quarter, with Alibaba's GMV and CMR projected to grow by 8% and 3% respectively, while JD.com is expected to maintain revenue growth above the retail sales growth rate [1][2]. - Pinduoduo is anticipated to continue gaining market share, while Alibaba focuses on the impact of new advertising products and technology service fees on monetization rates [2]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Performance - In July, the adjusted year-on-year growth rate for physical e-commerce retail sales was 8.1%, up from 6.4% in the second quarter. Categories such as communication equipment and sports/entertainment goods returned to double-digit growth [1][7]. - The postal bureau predicts a 22% year-on-year increase in express delivery volume for July, driven by the low average order value trend in e-commerce [1][8]. Company Performance - Alibaba's Taobao and Tmall reported a high single-digit growth in GMV, with a 1% increase in CMR, affected by the lower monetization rate from new business models [1]. - JD.com's revenue met expectations, with a decline in revenue from electrical appliances due to high base effects, while non-electrical categories maintained double-digit growth [1]. - Pinduoduo is focusing on GMV growth, while Douyin e-commerce is shifting its operational goals back to GMV from price competitiveness [1]. Valuation Overview - Pinduoduo (PDD US) is rated "Buy" with a target price of 213.0, currently trading at 145.1, indicating a potential upside of 46.8% [5]. - Alibaba (BABA US) is also rated "Buy" with a target price of 111.0, currently at 79.5, suggesting a potential upside of 39.6% [5]. - JD.com (JD US) is rated "Buy" with a target price of 41.0, currently at 27.0, indicating a potential upside of 51.9% [5].