Guoxin Securities·2024-08-18 10:13Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for JD Group [5][12] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 291.4 billion yuan in Q2 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.2%. JD Retail revenue was 257.1 billion yuan, up 1.5% year-on-year, with self-operated business revenue showing mid-single-digit growth. The logistics segment saw a revenue increase of 15.2% year-on-year, reaching 44.2 billion yuan [1][6] - Non-GAAP net profit for the quarter was 14.5 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 5.0%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved from 3.6% to 4.6% [1][6] - The company repurchased 68.4 million ADSs in June, totaling approximately 2.1 billion USD, representing 4.5% of the circulating shares as of March 31, 2024 [1][6] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 1,134.8 billion yuan, 1,202.3 billion yuan, and 1,281.7 billion yuan, with adjustments of -2.8%, -3.6%, and -4.5% respectively. Adjusted net profits are forecasted at 46.1 billion yuan, 51.4 billion yuan, and 56.8 billion yuan, with adjustments of 23.9%, 24.0%, and 26.8% respectively [2][12] - The company is expected to achieve a PE ratio of approximately 7x for 2024, with an estimated CAGR of adjusted net profit of 11% from 2024 to 2026 [2][12] Valuation - The target price is set between 162 and 194 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 50% to 79% from the current price of 108.2 HKD [4][12]