2024年7月经济数据解读：广义与狭义基建投资增速继续分化

Economic Overview - In July 2024, China's industrial added value increased by 5.1% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 5.0% but down from the previous month's 5.3%[5] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 37,757 billion yuan, growing by 2.7% year-on-year, which is below the market expectation of 3.0%[5] - Fixed asset investment accumulated a year-on-year growth of 3.6%, also below the expected 3.9%[5] Production Insights - The industrial added value saw a marginal decline of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing growing by 10.0% and 7.3% respectively, significantly above the overall industrial growth rate[6] - The computer manufacturing sector notably contributed to the high-tech industry's growth, with a year-on-year increase of 14.3%[6] Consumer Trends - Retail sales showed a seasonal increase due to summer travel, but the growth was weaker than expected, indicating ongoing consumer demand issues[7] - Food and communication equipment retail categories contributed significantly to retail growth, with increases of 9.9% and 12.7% respectively[7] - The automotive sector faced a decline of 4.9% year-on-year, negatively impacting overall retail sales by 0.5 percentage points, attributed to consumer hesitation[7] Investment Analysis - Fixed asset investment in July showed a monthly year-on-year increase of 1.9%, down 1.7 percentage points from the previous month[8] - Infrastructure investment growth diverged, with broad infrastructure investment rising by 10.7% while narrow infrastructure investment only increased by 2.0%[8] - Real estate investment continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 10.8%, indicating ongoing financial pressures in the sector[8] Future Outlook - The economic data indicates a clear structural divergence, with internal demand remaining a core issue as summer travel demand wanes[10] - The acceleration of special bond issuance is expected to provide additional funding for infrastructure projects, playing a crucial role in counter-cyclical fiscal adjustments[10]