煤炭行业周报：进入淡旺季切换，煤价下行有底

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector is undergoing a valuation reshaping, reflecting significant supply-demand structural changes and a trend towards becoming more utility-like. High dividend assets are increasingly favored in a low-risk yield environment [2] - Non-electric coal demand is expected to rise compared to the end of March, with coal prices projected to maintain a bottom above 800 RMB/ton [2] - The report anticipates that the bottom for thermal coal prices may appear between late August and early September [2] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal Data Tracking - As of August 16, 2024, the price for Q5500 thermal coal at Huanghua Port is 845 RMB/ton, down 9 RMB/ton (-1.1%) from the previous week [5] - In early August, prices for thermal coal at Shanxi and Inner Mongolia pits decreased, while prices in Shaanxi remained stable [6] - The report notes that the price gap between Australian coal and domestic coal is narrowing, with Australian Newcastle coal at 146.46 USD/ton, up 4.01% [7] Coking Coal Data Tracking - As of August 16, 2024, the price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1840 RMB/ton, down 20 RMB/ton (-1.1%) from the previous week [21] - Coking coal prices in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have also decreased, with Shanxi Gujiao fat coal at 1650 RMB/ton, down 70 RMB/ton (-4.1%) [22] - The report indicates that coking coal inventory at three major ports increased by 7.9% to 325.3 million tons [26] Market Overview - The coal sector outperformed the broader market, with the coal index rising by 1.97% compared to a 0.60% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [42] - Key companies such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry are recommended for their stable profitability and growth potential [2] Additional Insights - The report highlights that the average price for thermal coal in the northern ports is 699 RMB/ton for long-term contracts, showing a slight decrease of 0.1% from the previous month [17] - The overall coal market is expected to experience fluctuations, with a focus on the upcoming seasonal demand changes [2]