Guohai Securities·2024-08-18 16:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group-SW (9618.HK) [1] Core Views - JD Group's Q2 2024 financial results show robust revenue growth and significantly exceeded profit expectations, driven by strong logistics performance and effective cost control [2][8] - The company has repurchased $3.3 billion worth of shares, representing approximately 7.1% of its total shares as of the end of 2023 [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue: Q2 2024 revenue reached 291.4 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 1% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 12%, surpassing Bloomberg consensus expectations of 290.5 billion yuan [2][8] - Gross Profit: Gross profit for Q2 2024 was 45.9 billion yuan, up 11% year-over-year and 16% quarter-over-quarter, also exceeding expectations [2][8] - Operating Profit: Operating profit was 10.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 27% year-over-year increase and a 36% quarter-over-quarter increase [2][8] - Net Profit: Net profit reached 13.6 billion yuan, a remarkable 96% increase year-over-year and 85% quarter-over-quarter, significantly above expectations [2][8] - Non-GAAP Net Profit: Non-GAAP net profit was 14.5 billion yuan, up 69% year-over-year and 62% quarter-over-quarter, also exceeding consensus estimates [2][8] Segment Performance - JD Retail: Q2 2024 revenue for JD Retail was 257.1 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 1% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 13%, driven by an increase in active users and order volume [4][8] - JD Logistics: Q2 2024 revenue for JD Logistics was 44.2 billion yuan, reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase and a 5% quarter-over-quarter increase, with a significant improvement in operating profit margin [6][8] Profitability Metrics - Gross Margin: The gross margin for Q2 2024 was 15.8%, with operating margin at 3.6% and net margin at 4.7% [10][12] - Cost Management: The report highlights effective cost control measures, with R&D expenses at 1.4% of revenue and marketing expenses at 4.1% [10][12] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for JD Group for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 1,138.3 billion yuan, 1,197.4 billion yuan, and 1,257.3 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 36.5 billion yuan, 39.2 billion yuan, and 43 billion yuan [12][13] - The target market capitalization for 2025 is set at 461.6 billion yuan, translating to a target price of 145 yuan per share or 158 HKD per share [12][13]