盛德鑫泰更新报告：新建产能逐步释放，实现量利齐升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's net profit for the first half of 2024 is expected to be between 105-115 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 104.22%-123.66%, aligning with expectations [1] - Due to slightly lower-than-expected new installed capacity for downstream thermal power equipment, the net profit forecasts for 2024-2025 have been adjusted to 244 million and 276 million yuan respectively, down from 260 million and 352 million yuan [1] - The target price has been revised down to 26.52 yuan from 44.16 yuan, based on a 12x PE valuation [1] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 1,207 million yuan in 2022 to 2,489 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of approximately 4.8% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 73 million yuan in 2022 to 294 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.67 yuan in 2022 to 2.67 yuan in 2026 [3] - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to be 22.0% in 2026, up from 8.8% in 2022 [3] Capacity Expansion and Product Optimization - The new 40,000-ton stainless steel production line was completed in May 2023, increasing total capacity to 160,000 tons [1] - The company expects to see a significant increase in the shipment volume of alloy steel and stainless steel products in the first half of 2024, with year-on-year growth of approximately 21.68% and 81.06% respectively [1] - The product structure is expected to continue optimizing, leading to further improvements in profitability as new high-end capacities are released [1] Market Outlook - There remains substantial room for growth in thermal power installed capacity, with expectations for the industry to maintain relative prosperity over the next two years [1] - The approved coal power installed capacity for 2022 and 2023 was around 100 million kilowatts, with significant additional capacity still anticipated [1] Share Buyback Program - The company announced a share buyback plan using its own funds, with a total amount not less than 15 million yuan and not exceeding 30 million yuan [1] - As of July 31, 2024, the company had repurchased 564,230 shares, accounting for 0.51% of its total share capital [1]