ZHUHAI COSMX(SH:688772) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-08-19 06:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 100 million yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 28%. The second quarter net profit was 90 million yuan, down 67% year-on-year, primarily due to an increase in R&D expenses from 8.6% in Q2 2023 to 11.8% in Q2 2024, aimed at supporting new product development and acquiring new customers. Despite short-term pressure on expenses, the forecast for net profit from 2024 to 2026 has been adjusted downwards to 540 million, 946 million, and 1.331 billion yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 27.8, 15.9, and 11.3 for 2024-2026, respectively. The sustained increase in market share for consumer batteries and rapid growth in start-stop batteries support the "Buy" rating [6][8]. Summary by Sections Consumer Battery Market Share and Growth - The company has seen an increase in market share in the consumer battery sector, with a 10.5% year-on-year increase in notebook shipments and a 13.1% increase in smartphone shipments in the first half of 2024. The self-supply rate for consumer battery PACK reached 39.8%, up 7.9 percentage points year-on-year. The company is also expanding its overseas customer base with a new production facility in Malaysia [7][8]. Start-Stop Battery Business - The start-stop battery segment has experienced significant growth, with revenue from automotive start-stop batteries increasing by 730.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2024. The company has secured supply agreements with major clients such as Stellantis and GM, which are expected to contribute to future growth. Additionally, revenue from the drone business, in collaboration with DJI, grew by 56.4% year-on-year [8][9]. Financial Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 14.515 billion yuan in 2024 to 19.917 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 26.8% in 2024, 19.4% in 2025, and 14.9% in 2026. The net profit is expected to increase significantly, with a projected net profit margin of 3.7% in 2024, rising to 6.7% by 2026. The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 25.2% to 26.3% during this period [9][10].