消费品投资进阶之道系列四：供给视角看消费

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating on the Food & Beverage industry, consistent with the previous rating [2] Core Views - The report highlights the importance of supply-side factors in the consumer goods industry, emphasizing that supply directly influences consumer purchasing decisions and market prosperity [4] - Government regulation and technological innovation are identified as core elements affecting supply, influencing industry entry barriers, supply structure, and product quality [4] - Cost fluctuations and industry consolidation are key drivers shaping the competitive landscape, improving supply efficiency and quality through a survival-of-the-fittest mechanism [4] - The report recommends long-term investment opportunities in Chinese consumer leaders, particularly those with strong business models, clear growth logic, and improving competitive landscapes [4] Summary by Sections Government Regulation - Industry entry policies: Government policies, such as licensing and franchising, raise entry barriers, particularly in industries like tobacco, alcohol, and automotive [10][11] - Tax rate adjustments: Changes in VAT and consumption taxes directly impact supply-side cost structures, with tax cuts benefiting both businesses and consumers [13][14] - Special subsidy policies: Targeted subsidies and consumption vouchers stimulate consumer demand, as seen in the case of the new energy vehicle industry [15] Technological Innovation - Disruptive innovation: Radical technological advancements create new market demands, exemplified by products like the iPhone and Tesla [17] - Incremental innovation: Continuous product improvements enhance performance and efficiency, maintaining competitiveness in mature markets [19] - Business chain transformation: Technology empowers production, supply chain, and marketing, significantly improving efficiency and reducing costs [20] Cost Fluctuations - Raw material prices: Rising costs squeeze profit margins, while falling prices create investment opportunities, as seen in the beer industry [22][24] - Labor costs: Labor-intensive industries face challenges from rising wages, prompting investments in automation to reduce reliance on human labor [31] - Supply chain risks: Disruptions, such as the 2021 chip shortage, can severely impact production and increase costs [33][34] Industry Consolidation - Capacity cycle changes: Supply-demand mismatches drive capacity expansion and contraction, leading to industry consolidation [35][36] - Market concentration: Economic transformation, policy guidance, and consumption upgrades drive market concentration, benefiting leading companies [37][38] - Industry structure improvement: The industry evolves from perfect competition to oligopoly or monopoly, with leading firms gaining stronger market control [40][41] Recommended Stocks and Earnings Forecast - The report recommends several consumer leaders across various sectors, including Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Qingdao Beer, and Meituan, with detailed earnings forecasts and valuation metrics [44]