Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as BUY with a target price of HKD 17.90, reflecting a potential upside of 73.4% from the current price of HKD 10.32 [2][19]. Core Insights - The company reported a net profit of RMB 91.6 billion for 1H24, representing a year-on-year increase of 270%, exceeding the previous estimate of 220% [1]. - The strong profit growth is attributed to the unexpected expansion in unit gross margins for aluminum and alumina, with aluminum unit gross margin doubling to RMB 4,277 per ton and alumina unit gross margin increasing by 230% to RMB 748 per ton [1]. - The proposed interim dividend is HKD 0.59 per share, indicating a payout ratio of approximately 57% [1]. Revenue and Profit Breakdown - Aluminum Alloy Products (67% of revenue): Revenue increased by approximately 7% year-on-year to RMB 49 billion, with sales volume up 0.5% to 284 million tons and average selling price (ASP) rising by 7% to RMB 17,379 per ton [1]. - Alumina Segment (22% of revenue): Revenue grew by about 20% year-on-year to RMB 16 billion, with sales volume up 2.4% to 5.5 million tons and ASP increasing by 17% to RMB 2,942 per ton [1]. - Aluminum Processing Products (10% of revenue): Revenue surged by approximately 34% year-on-year to RMB 7.58 billion, with sales volume up 36% to 3.79 million tons, although ASP decreased by 1% to RMB 20,027 per ton [1]. Price Sensitivity and Market Conditions - A 1% increase in aluminum prices is expected to enhance the company's earnings by approximately 4% [1]. - The latest Shanghai aluminum price rebounded from RMB 18,835 per ton to RMB 19,310 per ton since early August, with an average price of RMB 19,500 per ton at the end of the quarter, reflecting a 6% year-on-year increase [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY24 are estimated at RMB 142.33 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [2]. - Adjusted net profit for FY24 is forecasted to be RMB 16.10 billion, representing a 40.5% increase compared to FY23 [2]. - The company is expected to maintain a P/E ratio of 9.8x for FY24, which is above its historical average of 6x [19].
中国宏桥：1H24 净利润同比 + 2.7 倍 ， 超预期