ZHUHAI COSMX(688772) 国信证券·2024-08-19 08:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Zhuhai CosMX Battery (688772 SH) [1][17] Core Views - Consumer battery sales continue to grow, while power and energy storage battery business steadily reduces losses [1] - The company's consumer battery market share is steadily increasing, with laptop battery sales up 10 5% YoY and mobile phone battery sales up 13 1% YoY in H1 2024 [1][9] - The company plans to invest approximately 2 billion yuan to build a consumer battery base in Malaysia to better expand into international markets [1][9] - The power and energy storage battery business narrowed losses both YoY and QoQ, with Q2 2024 revenue exceeding 250 million yuan, up 120% QoQ [1][9] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue reached 5 347 billion yuan, down 2% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 102 million yuan, down 28% YoY [1][4] - Q2 2024 revenue was 2 798 billion yuan, down 10% YoY but up 10% QoQ, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 92 million yuan, down 67% YoY but up 818% QoQ [1][4] - Gross margin for H1 2024 was 24 39%, up 1 92 percentage points YoY, while Q2 2024 gross margin was 24 15%, down 1 24 percentage points YoY [1][4] Business Segments Consumer Battery Business - Estimated Q2 2024 consumer battery sales reached nearly 90 million units, flat YoY but up over 12% QoQ [1][9] - Net profit for consumer batteries in Q2 2024 was approximately 182 million yuan, down 52% YoY but up 30% QoQ, with a net profit margin of 7 1% [1][9] - The company is advancing its sixth-generation fast-charging lithium battery, high-energy-density steel-shell battery, and seventh-generation super-fast-charging lithium battery, all in trial production [9] Power and Energy Storage Battery Business - The company focuses on drone batteries and automotive low-voltage batteries, with management efficiency continuously improving [1][9] - In H1 2024, the company secured contracts with Stellantis, GM, and a leading German automaker, with mass production expected in the future [1][11] - The subsidiary Zhejiang CosMX achieved total revenue of 406 million yuan in H1 2024, with automotive low-voltage batteries and drone batteries accounting for over 69% of revenue [10] Industry Outlook - Consumer electronics demand is expected to enter a peak season in H2 2024, with new models of mobile phones and laptops set to be released, driving steady growth in battery shipments [1][9] - The company's capacity utilization rate is expected to steadily increase, and cost control measures are likely to continue improving profitability [1][9] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 11 848 billion yuan, 14 110 billion yuan, and 16 966 billion yuan, with YoY growth of 4%, 19%, and 20% respectively [2][16] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 456 million yuan, 846 million yuan, and 1 286 billion yuan, with YoY growth of 33%, 85%, and 52% respectively [1][16] - EPS for 2024-2026 is expected to be 0 40 yuan, 0 75 yuan, and 1 14 yuan, with dynamic PE ratios of 33x, 18x, and 12x respectively [1][17]