朱格拉周期：国内外的历史经验与借鉴

Group 1: Economic Cycles - The average length of the Juglar cycle in both China and the U.S. is approximately 8 years, with China experiencing 5 complete cycles since 1980, lasting between 5 to 10 years each[1][49] - The U.S. has undergone seven complete cycles since 1960, with durations ranging from 4 to 11 years, averaging 7.9 years[1][49] Group 2: Investment and Economic Growth - In China, the investment cycle tends to lead the economic cycle, while in the U.S., the equipment investment cycle lags behind economic growth[2][49] - Historically, China's economic recovery is primarily driven by investment, whereas in the U.S., it is driven by consumer spending, which typically does not lag behind GDP growth[2][49] Group 3: Economic Volatility - Post-financial crisis, both China and the U.S. have seen a significant reduction in economic cycle volatility[3][3] - China's economic growth has shifted from high volatility to a more stable trajectory since 2010, with GDP growth rates showing less fluctuation[3][3] Group 4: Risk Factors - Historical experiences do not guarantee future outcomes, and economic data may not meet expectations, especially in volatile overseas markets[4][4]