Panda Dairy (300898) 华鑫证券·2024-08-19 10:40Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Profitability improvement and condensed milk growth momentum continuation [1] - Revenue under pressure but gross margin optimization continues [1] - Condensed milk growth momentum continues with active expansion of distribution channels [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - 2024H1 total revenue: 360 million yuan (YoY -19%), net profit attributable to parent company: 47 million yuan (YoY +0.4%), non-GAAP net profit: 39 million yuan (YoY -3%) [1] - 2024Q2 total revenue: 175 million yuan (YoY -25%), net profit attributable to parent company: 21 million yuan (YoY -26%), non-GAAP net profit: 17 million yuan (YoY -30%) [1] - 2024H1 gross margin increased by 4pct to 27.46%, mainly due to lower raw material costs and product structure optimization [1] - 2024H1 net profit margin increased by 3pct to 13.15% [1] Product and Channel Performance - 2024H1 revenue breakdown: condensed dairy products (259 million yuan, YoY -13%), dairy trade (80 million yuan, YoY -29%), coconut products (19 million yuan, YoY -39%), others (3 million yuan, YoY -52%) [1] - 2024H1 channel breakdown: direct sales (59 million yuan, YoY -14%), distribution (220 million yuan, YoY -17%), trade (80 million yuan, YoY -29%), others (1 million yuan, YoY +45%) [1] - As of 2024H1, number of distributors: East China (158, +3 from beginning of year), South China (77, -1), other regions (137, +3) [1] Financial Forecast - 2024-2026 EPS forecast adjusted to 0.93/0.98/1.06 yuan (previous: 0.98/1.14/1.32 yuan) [1] - Current P/E ratio: 18/17/15x for 2024-2026 [1] - 2024-2026 revenue forecast: 900/905/931 million yuan [3] - 2024-2026 net profit forecast: 115/121/132 million yuan [3] - 2024-2026 ROE forecast: 11.2%/10.9%/10.9% [3] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - 2024E cash and equivalents: 300 million yuan [4] - 2024E total assets: 1,261 million yuan [4] - 2024E operating cash flow: 61 million yuan [4] - 2024E net cash flow: 53 million yuan [4]