集运欧线不同合约价格走势的逻辑分析

Market Trends - The tight supply situation in the shipping capacity has eased, and the driving force for freight rate increases no longer exists[1][2] - The spot price of container shipping has accelerated its decline, negatively impacting the futures market[1][2] - The near-month contracts for container shipping futures show stronger performance, expected to fluctuate narrowly[1][2] Economic Indicators - The Eurozone's economic sentiment index fell to 95.8 in July, a decrease of 0.1 points[2] - The Eurozone composite PMI dropped to 50.2 in July, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month[2] Pricing and Contracts - Major airlines have frequently lowered freight rates, with some large container quotes dropping below $7,000[2] - The SCFIS index was quoted at 6060.83 points on August 12 and 5918.73 points on August 19, with a likely further drop to around 5700 points by August 26[2] - The EC2408 contract is expected to fluctuate narrowly around 5750 points, with the basis likely to converge at delivery[2] Future Expectations - The far-month contracts are trading on the expectation of spot price declines, with significant discounts already priced in[2][3] - The EC2410 contract is discounted by 2818 points, and the EC2412 contract by 3392 points, indicating limited downside potential in the short term[3] - The 2025 contracts are trading on the logic of potential Red Sea resumption, with geopolitical factors having a muted impact on near-month contracts[3]