Morning session notice 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 连盘玉米期货：上周五夜盘玉米期货窄幅震荡，截止夜盘收盘2511合约涨幅0.27%， | | | | | 收于2225元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中储粮网将于9月9日组织进口玉米（转基因）拍卖193946吨。 | | | | | 2、截至9月5日北方港口四港玉米库存共计约107万吨。北方港口玉米库存延续去化 | | | | | 趋势，库存水平已经低于去年同期。广东港口玉米库存63万吨，部分饲料企业逢低 | | | | | 补库，港口成交略有升温。 | | | | | 3、周末山东地区深加工企业厂门到货小幅增加。7日厂门到货440辆，较前一日增加 | | | | | 35辆。 | | | | | 【市场逻辑】 | | 农林畜 | 玉米 | 区间 | 短期来看，新旧交替之际现货企稳走强，盘面下方支撑关注新季玉米种植成本折港 | | | | | ...

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 股市调整 债市反弹 2025年9月5日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：刘洋 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F3063825 期货交易咨询号：Z0016580 国债期货一周行情复盘 年国债跌0.03%。 本周国债期货主力合约整体走势为冲高回落。周一拒绝下跌、反弹收中阳线，周二小幅波动调整，周三再上攻收 中阳线，周四冲高后小幅回落，周五大幅下跌，全周30年国债跌0.18%，10年国债涨0.12%，5年国债涨0.07%，2 数据来源：wind，格林大华 股债跷跷板 本周一万得全A指数创新高，周二、周三、周四连续三天回落，周五大幅反弹，国债期货在有的单日走势 会走出独立性，但总体股债跷跷板依然明显。 数据来源：wind，格林大华 数据来源：wind，格林大华 国债现券到期收益率曲线变动 8月份官方制造业PMI为49.4%，连续第五个月在荣枯线之下 9月5日收盘国债现券到期收益率曲线与8月29日变化不大。2年期国债到期收益率从8月29日的1.40%上行1 个BP至9月5日的1.41% ；5年期国债到期收益率从8 ...

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 玉米波段看多 上方空间谨慎乐观 生猪弱势延续 下方空间相对有限 现货涨幅有限 鸡蛋高空思路不变 2025年09月05日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：张晓君 联系方式：0371-65617380 期货从业资格证号：F0242716 期货交易咨询号：Z0011864 本周玉米现货止跌企稳，玉米期货下探新粮种植成本折港价区间上沿2150元/吨附近止跌持续回升，主力合约周涨幅1.51%，收于2224元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1、5日南北港口价格小幅上涨，锦州港（15%水/容重680-720）收购价2220-2240元/吨，高点较前一日涨10元/吨；蛇口港散粮玉米成交价2380 元/吨，较前一日涨10元/吨。 6、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示，截止到2025年第36周末，广州港口谷物库存量为182.2万吨，环比增加2.30%，同比增加12.12%。其中：玉米 库存量为66.30万吨，环比下降11.95%，同比增加107.84%；高粱库存量为46万吨，环比下降11.37%，同比下降33.43%；大麦库存量为69.9万吨， 环比增加37.33%，同比增加13.66 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel and ore are expected to have upside potential after bottoming out and oscillating. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips and hold existing long positions with stop - loss set [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Steel and Ore Market Situation - This week, the production and apparent demand of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased, while both factory and social inventories increased. The supply of rebar and hot - rolled coils is expected to increase as steel mills in Tangshan and other places resume production. During the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, demand is expected to rise, and the capital availability rate of downstream construction has increased month - on - month. The cement delivery has been continuously improving, and the construction market is gradually transitioning to the peak season [5]. - This week, the daily output of hot metal was 228,840 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 112,900 tons. It is expected that the hot metal output will rebound later, supporting the demand for iron ore. The arrival and shipment of iron ore this period increased month - on - month. The resistance level of the main iron ore 2601 contract is 833, and the support level is 750 [5]. - This week, steel and ore oscillated at the bottom. During the week, the finished steel reached a new low, and the iron ore trend was still stronger than that of the finished steel [6]. Important News - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a slight month - on - month decrease of 1% from July and about a 35% year - on - year increase from 62,500 vehicles in the same period last year. This is the fifth consecutive monthly increase in the heavy - truck market since April this year [11]. - In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The market demand in the manufacturing industry has improved, with a slight month - on - month rebound [11]. - In August, the output of special - quality steel bars from 46 domestic enterprises was 4.3527 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 90,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 263,800 tons. The expected output in September is 4.4783 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 125,600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 454,800 tons [11]. - In August, China's Logistics Industry Prosperity Index was 50.9%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [11]. - On September 2nd, Jiangsu Shagang Group lowered the scrap steel purchase price by 50 yuan/ton. After the adjustment, the truck - transported price for heavy - grade III scrap steel was 2,410 yuan/ton (including tax), and for furnace - grade I scrap steel was 2,490 yuan/ton (including tax). The cumulative decline in 2025 is 150 yuan/ton [11]. - On September 3rd, the average cost of 76 independent electric - arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,333 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The average profit was - 135 yuan/ton, and the profit during off - peak electricity hours was - 39 yuan/ton, a day - on - day decrease of 3 yuan/ton [11]. - On September 3rd, the total scrap steel inventory of 300 long - and short - process representative steel mills was 4.944 million tons, a decrease of 28,600 tons (0.58%) from the previous day. The daily consumption was 543,700 tons, a 0.28% decrease from the previous day, and the daily arrival was 515,100 tons, a 0.27% increase from the previous day [12]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Affected by production restrictions due to major events, the steel supply decreased this week but is expected to increase [13]. - Short - process steelmaking is in full - scale loss, while some blast furnaces still have profits. After the military parade, steel production will recover, and the daily hot metal output is likely to rise above 240,000 tons [15]. - The iron ore shipment volume continued to increase, and the arrival pressure is still expected to be high later. The port inventory has increased [23]. - From August 25th to August 31st, the total global iron ore shipment was 35.568 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.41 million tons. The total shipment from Australia and Brazil was 29.021 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.417 million tons. Australia's shipment was 18.946 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 502,000 tons, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 15.298 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.874 million tons. Brazil's shipment was 10.075 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.919 million tons [25]. - From August 25th to August 31st, the total arrival at 47 ports in China was 26.45 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.827 million tons; the total arrival at 45 ports was 25.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.327 million tons; and the total arrival at six northern ports was 13.008 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.478 million tons [25].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The increase in this period's crude oil inventory exceeded market expectations, leading to a decline in international oil prices. In the fourth quarter, crude oil consumption is transitioning from the peak season to the off - season. If the OPEC+ production increase plan continues, the market may face supply surplus pressure, which will limit the upside potential of oil prices [1] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Product Demand - In the four weeks ending August 29, the average daily total demand for refined oil products in the United States was 21.282 million barrels, 2.5% higher than the same period last year. The four - week average daily demand for motor gasoline was 9.05 million barrels, 0.8% lower than the same period last year, and the four - week average daily demand for distillate oil was 3.894 million barrels, 4.2% higher than the same period last year [1] 3.2 Inventory Data - As of August 29, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory was 420.707 million barrels, an increase of 2.415 million barrels (0.58%) from the previous week. The Cushing crude oil inventory was 24.222 million barrels, an increase of 1.59 million barrels (7.03%). The U.S. gasoline inventory was 218.539 million barrels, a decrease of 3.795 million barrels (-1.71%), and the U.S. distillate oil inventory was 115.923 million barrels, an increase of 1.681 million barrels (1.47%). The total U.S. oil product inventory was 1.26582 billion barrels, an increase of 7.102 million barrels (0.56%), and the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 404.71 million barrels, an increase of 509,000 barrels (0.13%) [1][2] 3.3 Production and Trade Data - The U.S. refinery utilization rate was 94.3%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points (-0.32%). The U.S. crude oil production was 13.423 million barrels per day, a decrease of 16,000 barrels per day (-0.12%). The U.S. crude oil imports were 6.742 million barrels per day, an increase of 508,000 barrels per day (8.15%), and the U.S. crude oil exports were 3.884 million barrels per day, an increase of 74,000 barrels per day (1.94%) [2]

研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 9 月 5 日星期五 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周四夜盘甲醇主力合约期货价格上涨 | 28 | 元至 | 2408 | 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货价 | | | | | | | | | | | 格下跌 | 8 | 元/吨至 | 2245 | 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 | 5719 | 手至 | 46.39 | 万手，空 | 头持仓增加 | 2745 | 手至 | 55.9 | 万手。 | | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 | 86.6%，环 ...

期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 农林畜 2025年9月4日 农林畜研究员：王子健 从业资格证号：F03087965 交易咨询证号：Z0019551 联系方式： 17803978037 证监许可【2011】1288号 成文时间：2025年9月4日星期四 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 题目：胶板印刷纸期货上市系列报告（一） 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 摘要：2025年8月15日，中国证监会批准上海期货交易所推 出全球首个文化用纸金融衍生品——胶版印刷纸期货及期权 ，该品种将于9月10日正式上市交易。作为造纸产业链的核心 品种，胶版印刷纸广泛应用于图书、杂志、笔记本等领域， 其期货及期权的推出将填补国内文化用纸风险管理工具的空 白，助力企业通过套期保值应对价格波动，完善浆纸产业全 周期风险管理体系。同时，该品种的上市还将促进造纸行业 绿色低碳转型，并通过市场化手段提升我国在全球文化用纸 市场的定价影响力。 期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 胶版印刷纸是文化印刷用纸的典型代表纸种，主要以漂白木浆为原料制成，主流图书均采用胶版印刷 纸进行印刷。根据中国造纸协会等有关机构统计，双胶纸作为未涂布 ...

研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com 早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 9 月 4 日 星期四 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制发布， 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周三两市主要指数延续调 ...

研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com 早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 9 月 3 日 星期三 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制发布， 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周二成长类指数调整幅度 ...

市场快讯 -- 印尼国内抗议 棕榈油再度上涨 2025年9月2日 联系电话13633849418 格林大华 期货研究院 证监许可 [2011] 1288号 研究员:刘锡 从业资格 F0276812 交易咨询: Z0011862 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的雄殿的麦楚姓不作任何保证，不保证报告信息已做景新变更，也不保证分析师始出的任何建议不会发生任何变更，在任何情况下，报告中的信息或所示达的意见并不 买卖的出价或劲价、在任何情况下，我公司不就股告中的任何投资新就出任所党式的起解。投资者啟援。我改风险官游承担。我公司可能发出与本报告意见不一致的其他报告，本报告反映的所属本使意见与复 表我公司的立场。未经我公司同意，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制或对本报告进行有情原意的删节和修改 数据来源:文华财经美国农业部 格林大华期货有限公司 1、8月28日,因市民被武装警察车辆 撞死,印尼雅加达爆发大规模居民抗 4、印尼自2020年以来加强生柴添加使用 止到目前B40已经在实施,B50正在研发 之中,这导致印尼国内自需棕榈油提高, 可供出口量预计会出现减少。 议,印尼总统普拉博沃来华访问取消 ...