证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 1月制造业PMI重回收缩 期债震荡略多 2026年2月7日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：刘洋 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F3063825 期货交易咨询号：Z0016580 国债现券到期收益率曲线变动 2月6日收盘国债现券到期收益率曲线与1月30日相比整体下移，超长短下移略多。2年期国债到期收益率从1月30 日的1.38%下行2个BP至2月6日的1.36%；5年期国债到期收益率从1月30日的1.58%下行2个BP至2月6日的1.56%；10 年期国债到期收益率持平于1.81%；30年期国债到期收益率从1月30日的2.29%下行4个BP至2月6日的2.25%。 数据来源：中国债券信息网， 格林大华 1月份中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，重回收缩区间 国债期货一周行情复盘 本周国债期货主力合约多数表现为探底回升，前半周小幅下行， 后半周连续上涨，30年期品种表现强势，全周 30年国债收涨0.63%，10年国债涨0.12%，5年国债涨0.06%，2年国债涨0.06%。 数据来源：wind， ...

Report Overview - The report reviews the weekly market conditions of the domestic futures market from February 2 - 6, 2026, covering various sectors including agriculture, black commodities, energy and chemicals, and financial futures [1]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed a mixed performance this week, with more declining varieties than rising ones in the commodity futures market. Different sectors were affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical events, and policy regulations [1]. Summary by Sector Agricultural Futures - **Corn**: The spot price had a narrow - range fluctuation, with the futures price rising 0.13% and closing at 2274 yuan/ton. Near - term, the spot market will be quiet due to the approaching Spring Festival, and the futures market is expected to trade within a wide range. The 2603 contract has support at 2250 and short - term pressure at 2280 [4]. - **Pig**: The spot price was weak, with the average price on the 6th at 11.96 yuan/kg. The futures price of the 2603 contract dropped 3.21% to 10860 yuan/ton. As the Spring Festival approaches, the average price hovers around 12 yuan/kg. Near - month short positions were suggested to take profits, and far - month short positions were to test the lower support [5][6]. - **Egg**: The egg price dropped sharply and then stabilized, with the Hebei Guantao price at 2.96 yuan/jin on the 6th. The futures price of the 2603 contract fell 3.26% to 2904 yuan/500KG. In the short term, the supply - strong and demand - weak situation may continue to pressure the price. Mid - term, the supply pressure is postponed. Previously held short positions were advised to take profits below 3000, and now it's mainly in a wait - and - see mode [6]. - **Jujube**: The Xinjiang jujube trees are in dormancy, and the Hebei market price is stable. The futures price was weakly oscillating. The supply pressure is the main factor suppressing the price, and the CJ605 contract is expected to seek historical low support. A bearish view is recommended for the medium - to - long - term [6]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar oscillated. The northern beet sugar production is nearly over, and the southern is in the peak season. After the Spring Festival stocking, there is no obvious positive support, but some overseas institutions' reduction of the 2026/27 global sugar surplus may boost the far - month price. It's expected to trade within a range next week [7]. - **Log**: The log futures market is complex. The downstream 3 - meter wood square price in Lanshan is rising, and radiation pine traders' quotes are firm. If the price transmission is smooth, the spot price may rise, and the futures market has some positive factors [7]. - **Apple**: The apple market is structurally differentiated. High - quality apples support the price in the long - term, while ordinary apples face sales pressure. Near the end of the Spring Festival, the market will continue to oscillate widely in the short - term [8]. - **Cotton**: Internationally, cotton supply is tightening, and demand is resilient. Brazilian exports are down, and Australian production is expected to decrease. US net signing and shipping volumes are stable. Domestically, the supply - demand pattern is stable, but demand is seasonally weakening. The Zhengzhou cotton main contract will oscillate between 14500 - 15000 yuan/ton before the Spring Festival [8]. Black Commodities - **Steel Products**: The supply of five major steel products decreased by 0.4% to 819.9 million tons, and the total inventory increased by 4.6% to 1337.75 million tons. Consumption decreased by 5.1%, with a significant drop in building materials and a slight increase in plates. The downstream winter - storage willingness is weak, and the price is expected to remain in the oscillation range before the Spring Festival, with 3050 as strong support for the rebar main contract [9][10]. - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments and arrivals increased. Domestic mine production decreased, and port inventories continued to accumulate. Iron water production remained stable, and steel mills' pre - holiday replenishment is almost over. The first support for the main contract is 750, the second is 730, and the first pressure is 800, the second is 830 [10]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures oscillated sharply. The supply is decreasing as coal mines close for the holiday, but Mongolian coal imports are high. Steel mills' pre - holiday replenishment is almost done, and the market is expected to oscillate within a range before the Spring Festival [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Affected by the geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the price fluctuated greatly. The US - Iran negotiation and the US manufacturing PMI affected the market sentiment. Before a conclusion on the US - Iran situation, the price is expected to oscillate upwards [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It was under pressure due to the decline of precious and non - ferrous metals and the strengthening of risk management by the exchange. With the approaching Spring Festival, long - position holders are more willing to close positions. It's expected to oscillate widely between 130,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and a short straddle option strategy can be considered [14]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory is decreasing, and Iranian plants are resuming production. The downstream olefin plant operating rate is low, and the inland market is mainly for inventory clearance. It will continue to oscillate within a range in the short - term [15]. - **Urea**: The seasonal demand is starting, and the upstream inventory pressure is reducing. However, the high - supply situation remains. The price is expected to oscillate strongly within a key range, and investors can wait for price corrections to enter the market [15][16]. - **Bottle Chips**: Affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the fluctuation of crude oil prices, the price followed the raw materials to oscillate widely. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the short - term. It's recommended to operate lightly within the 6100 - 6450 yuan/ton range [16]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber oscillated weakly, with cost support from raw materials but weakening demand due to the approaching holiday. Synthetic rubber's BR main contract fell from a high level due to the weakening of raw material cost support and increased market supply. Both are expected to have a weak performance before the Spring Festival [17]. Financial Futures - The new nominee for the Fed Chairman's monetary policy of "rate - cut + balance - sheet reduction" has led to global de - leveraging. The A - share market is in an adjustment period, and the US stock market is accelerating de - leveraging. Before the Spring Festival, it's necessary to prevent the impact of the US stock market on A - shares, and it's recommended to close long positions, reduce equity assets, or hedge risks [18].

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 节前钢矿预计下方空间有限 2026年2月6日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：纪晓云 联系方式：010-56711796 期货从业资格证号：F3066027 期货交易咨询号：Z0011402 钢材观点 钢材：临近春节，钢厂陆续放假，供给下降。钢材持续累库，季节惯性。钢材消费总体下降，其中建材降幅较大，板 材微增，下游需求逐渐减少，市场基本处于半停滞状态。其中建材减量显著，板材消费未明显下降。冬储需求看，下 游冬储意愿仍较弱，今年冬储量普遍低于去年。冬储价格多为3100-3150元/吨，对盘面形成支撑，市场对节后多看稳。 上游焦炭提涨，对盘面形成一定支撑。综合判断，当前成材价格并无明显驱动，螺纹主力3050仍为强支撑，预计节前 难突破震荡区间下沿。 铁矿：本期全球铁矿石发运增加，到港量增加。海外继续维持高发运量，供给端预期增加。国内矿山产量下降，铁矿 供给弹性不足。港口进口铁矿库存持续累库。本期铁水日产228.58万吨，周环比增加0.6万吨，临近假期，铁水产量变 化不大，铁矿刚性需求难有增量。多数钢厂节前补库进入尾声，缺口较小，对铁矿石价格支撑不足。预 ...

市场快讯---COMEX白银向下突破70美元 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，不保证报告信息已做最新变更，也不保证分析师做出的任何建议不会发生任何变更。在任何情况下，报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述 期货品种买卖的出价或询价。在任何情况下，我公司不就报告中的任何内容对任何投资所做出任何形式的担保，投资者据此投资，投资风险自我承担。我公司可能发出与本报告意见不一致的其他报告，本报告反映分析师本人的意见与结论，并不 代表我公司的立场。未经我公司同意，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制或对本报告进行有悖原意的删节和修改。 研究员：刘洋 从业资格 F3063825 交易咨询 Z0016580 联系方式 liuyang18036@greendh.com 格林大华 期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288号 2026年2月6日 2月6日，COMEX白银向下突破70美元/盎司，伦敦现货白银一度跌破67美元/盎司。在本周前三天反弹后， 白银转头向下，创出新低。剧烈的波动，引发连锁反应，市场的踩踏导致暴涨之后暴跌。交易所在短期内多次 提高保证金要求。2月5日 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 6 日星期五 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | 黑色建材 | 钢材 | 震荡 | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 周四螺纹热卷收涨。夜盘收跌。 【重要资讯】 1、2026 年 1 月下旬，重点统计钢铁企业共生产粗钢 2128 万吨，平均日产 193.5 万吨，日产环比下降 2.2%；生铁 1915 万吨，平均日产 174.1 万吨，日产环比下降 3.0%；钢材 2130 万吨，平均日产 193.6 万吨，日产环比增长 3.2%。 2、2026 年 1 月下旬，重点统计钢铁企业钢材库存量 1471 万吨，环比上一旬减少 142 万吨，下降 8.8%；比年初增加 57 万吨，增长 4.0%；比上月同旬增加 57 万吨， 增长 4.0%；比去年同旬减少 64 万吨，下降 4.2%，比前年同旬增加 251 万吨，增长 20.6%。 3、Mysteel：1 月全国 ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 受外盘影响，周四两市主要指数低开下行，下午有所反弹。主要指数呈现破位形态， 叠加纳指趋弱，后市不乐观。两市成交额 2.17 万亿元，继续缩量。沪深 300 指数 收 4670 点，跌 28 点，跌幅-0.60%；上证 50 指数收 3059 点，跌 10 点，跌幅-0.33%； 中证 500 指数收 8146 点，跌 152 点，跌幅-1.84%；中证 1000 指数收 8068 点，跌 | | | | | 139 点，跌幅-1.69%。行业与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的是银行 ETF 天弘、影视 ETF、 食品 ETF 鹏华、旅游 ETF、消费 ETF 华夏，跌幅居前的是光伏 ETF 华夏、黄金股 ETF 工银、中韩半导体 ETF。两市板块指数中涨幅居前的是影视院线、日用化工、医疗 | | | | | 美容、酒店餐饮、中小银行指数，跌幅居前的是光伏设备、贵金属、工业金属、稀 | | | | IF （弱） | 有金属、风电设备指数。沪深 3 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 6 日星期五 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周四夜盘主力合约期货 | BZ2603 | 价格下跌 | 47 | 元至 | 6135 | 元/吨，华东主流地区现货价 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 格 | 6150 | 元/吨（环比-30），山东地区现货价格 | 6165 | 元/吨（环比-13）。持仓方面， | 多头减少 | 1608 | 手至 | 2.06 | ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 1172.0 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1172.0 元/吨，环比日盘开盘下跌 3.06%；焦炭主力合约 J2605收于 1738.0 元/吨，环比日盘开盘下跌 1.81%。昨日夜盘，焦煤主力合约收于 1161.0 | | | | | 元/吨，环比日盘收盘下跌 0.94%，焦炭主力合约收于 1733.0 元/吨，环比日盘收盘下跌 | | | | | 0.29%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、本周，五大钢材品种供应 819.9 万吨，周环比下降 3.27 万吨，降幅 0.4%；五大钢材 总库存 1337.75 万吨，周环比增 59.24 万吨，增幅 4.6%；五大品种周消费量为 760.66 | | | 焦煤、 | | 万吨，降 5. ...

研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周四国债期货主力合约开盘大致平开，早盘横向波动，午后有所上涨，30 年期品种 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 走势偏强，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 上涨 0.38%，10 年期 T2603 上涨 0.08%，5 年期 TF2603 上涨 0.07%，2 年期 TS2603 上涨 0.04%。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周四央行开展了 1185 亿元亿元 7 天期逆回购操作和 3000 亿元 14 天 | | | | | 期逆回购操作，当天有 3540 亿元逆回购到期，当日合计净投放 645 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周四银行间资金市场隔夜利率较上一交易日持平，DR001 全天加权平 | | | | | 均为 1.32%，上一交易日加权平均 1.32%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.48%，上一交易 | | | ...

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 昨日 SR605 合约收盘价 5224 元/吨，日涨幅 0.27%，夜盘收 5241 元/吨；SR609 合约 | | | | | 收盘价 5227 元/吨，日涨幅 0.25%，夜盘收 5250 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1.昨日广西白糖现货成交价为 5256 元/吨，上涨 2 元/吨；广西制糖集团报价区间为 | | | | | 5270~5370 元/吨，少数上调 10~30 元/吨；云南制糖集团报价 5110~ 5180 元/吨， | | | | | 加工糖厂主流报价区间为 5580~5800 元/吨，报价持稳。 | | | | | 2.咨询机构 Stonex 近日发布报告，预计 2026/27 榨季巴西中南部地区食糖产量为 | | | | | 4070 万吨，较此前预估的 4150 万吨减少 80 万吨。预计 202 ...