Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1]. Core Views - The company's H1 2024 performance met expectations, with total revenue of 1.754 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 295 million yuan, up 15.96% year-on-year [3]. - The company is experiencing a marketing transformation, with product upgrades expected to sustain growth. The main growth drivers for the next three years are anticipated to come from government and business group purchases, as well as banquet channels [3]. - The company’s cash flow is under pressure, with cash received from sales declining by 12.84% year-on-year in Q2 2024, primarily due to changes in advance payments [4]. Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 18.05 yuan - Year-to-date high/low: 30.80/17.16 yuan - Price-to-book ratio: 2.6 - Dividend yield: 2.16% - Market capitalization: 9,156 million yuan [1]. Financial Performance - H1 2024 total revenue: 1.754 billion yuan, up 15.17% year-on-year - H1 2024 net profit: 295 million yuan, up 15.96% year-on-year - Q2 2024 total revenue: 678 million yuan, up 7.73% year-on-year - Q2 2024 net profit: 74 million yuan, up 1.88% year-on-year [3]. Profitability Metrics - Q2 2024 gross margin: 64.67%, up 2.63 percentage points year-on-year - Q2 2024 net profit margin: 10.74%, down 0.47 percentage points year-on-year - Q2 2024 non-recurring net profit margin: 11.8%, up 0.37 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. Future Earnings Forecast - Projected net profits for 2024-2026: 380 million, 420 million, and 453 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 10%, and 8% [3][5]. - Projected earnings per share for 2024-2026: 0.75, 0.83, and 0.89 yuan respectively [5].
金徽酒:24H1点评:业绩符合预期,现金流表现承压