资产配置跟踪周报：大类资产震荡背后的应对之策

Core Insights - The overall performance of major asset classes has shown continued volatility, with the A-share market gradually recovering after a period of low trading volume, while the bond market remains in a state of fluctuation due to regulatory guidance and economic data releases [2][4] - The report indicates that market confidence is expected to gradually recover in the third quarter, with stronger economic recovery anticipated in the fourth quarter, despite current economic challenges [5][6] Equity Market - The current economic situation reflects a combination of low trading volumes and market confidence issues, with expectations for policy enhancements in the third quarter, particularly in the consumer sector [5][6] - Recent economic data shows that fixed asset investment in real estate continues to decline, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of -9.8% for the first seven months, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [6] - Industrial value-added has slightly decreased, with high-tech industries showing some growth, while consumer spending remains stable but insufficient to drive overall economic recovery [6][7] Bond Market - The bond market has experienced a return to rationality in trading sentiment, with short-term bond yields rising more significantly than long-term yields, suggesting a preference for short-term bonds in the current environment [3][39] - The report emphasizes the need for caution in the bond market, recommending a reduction in the allocation to interest rate-sensitive bonds while favoring short-term bonds due to their better pricing [39] Commodity Market - Gold prices have reached new highs, driven by increased expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, geopolitical uncertainties, and a general decline in risk appetite across global capital markets [3][40] - The report suggests that the logic for gold investment remains strong, with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the potential for further price increases, recommending an increase in gold allocations [40]