China Post Securities·2024-08-20 09:39Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 1.67, 1.87, and 2.08 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 13, 12, and 11 times [6][7][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 23.744 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a slight decrease of 0.53% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.705 billion yuan, an increase of 1.20% year-on-year [4]. - The gross margin improved to 46.91%, driven by structural upgrades in the beer and liquor businesses, alongside better raw material costs [4][5]. - The beer segment generated revenue of 22.566 billion yuan, down 1.43% year-on-year, with sales volume at 6.348 million tons, a decline of 3.39% [5]. - The liquor segment saw a revenue increase of 20.6% year-on-year, reaching 1.178 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 67.6% [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 237.44 billion yuan in H1 2024, with a net profit of 47.05 billion yuan [4]. - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 46.91%, with a net profit margin of 19.82% [4]. Beer Segment - Revenue from the beer segment was 22.566 billion yuan, with a sales volume of 6.348 million tons [5]. - The average selling price per ton was 3,555 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.03% [5]. - The gross margin for the beer segment improved to 45.8% [5]. Liquor Segment - The liquor segment reported a revenue of 1.178 billion yuan, with a gross margin increase of 2.1 percentage points to 67.6% [5]. - High-end liquor products contributed significantly to the revenue, with sales growth exceeding 50% year-on-year for key products [5]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates improved beer sales in the second half of 2024, with continued cost improvements expected [6]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 39.227 billion, 40.197 billion, and 41.209 billion yuan, with expected net profits of 5.404 billion, 6.066 billion, and 6.747 billion yuan respectively [6][7].